The Healthcare Fight could Drag into January

[Warph]

March 17, 2010
The Healthcare Fight could drag into January
http://www.timothybirdnow.com/?p=2887
by Jack Kemp

At this moment, it appears that the House Democrats don't have the votes to pass their healthcare bill, even with the aptly named Slaughter Rule which would bypass a direct vote on the Senate bill. A vote for this convoluted procedure is, in the eyes of the voters, very similar to a straight up and down vote on the Senate approved healthcare bill. That means those House Democrats that fear losing their seat today are not placated by any legalisms involving a bill that the voters strongly object to. There is public talk of pushing the House vote back to April 4th.  Of course, my assumptions can be proven wrong in an instant in the coming days and weeks.

But allow me to consider a speculation on a line of thought based on what if an ObamaCare bill won't be passed by Election Day. What changes after a Democratic electoral "bloodbath" in November?

Professional pollsters, including Democrat Pat Caddell are saying the Democratic Party could lose "30 or more House seats" (try 70 or more, Pat) in November. A defeated Democratic Congressperson  who in early November 2010 now knows that their career is over gets approached by  Nancy Pelosi with an offer of a job if they now vote "yes" on the healthcare bill. Remember, the defeated Democrats still are in office until early January, effectively in power until Christmas. Will these lame duck Democrats take such an offer from their party? Or will they be so bitter - and well connected - that they see taking such an offer from Madame Speaker (a possible soon-to-be ex-Speaker) as a detriment to their future in general or as a Democrat in particular?

People a lot more informed as to what goes on in Washington than myself can speculate on this in greater detail, but they can't read the minds and hearts of well connected soon-to-be ex-Congresspeople.

On the surface, a soon to be Democratic ex-Congressperson has nothing to further lose in voting for the ObamaCare Bill in mid-November or December. But there are other considerations they might have, including possibly not wanting to be associated with an ex-Speaker.

The only thing one can say with some degree of certainty is that the people who believe that manipulations and intrigues involving the ObamaCare bill, be it attempts to pass a first version with "reconciliations" or any other amended versions, will not see an end to this struggle until the new Congress meets on or about January 3rd, 2011.

And then a new fight can begin.