Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Crude oil closed at $129.29 down $5.31 on the day and Natural Gas closed at $10.537 down $0.861 on the day. Crude is trading up this A.m due to more threatened strikes by the Nigerian Rebels and market corrections.

Crude Oil Gains on Speculation Prices Fell Too Far, Too Fast

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose, rebounding from the biggest four-day decline in more than three years, on speculation that prices fell too far, too fast this week.

Oil rallied as buyers bet that the 11 percent decline in the first four days of this week, the biggest since December 2004, was excessive. Prices fell after the U.S. decided to participate in nuclear talks with Iran, easing concern a conflict will cut supplies from OPEC's second-largest producer.

``We have come down about $14 this week which is too much,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``Maybe it is a bit of a dead cat bounce today and there will be more selling next week.''

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $2.55, or 2 percent, to $131.84 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $131.20 at 10:19 a.m. London time.

Yesterday, oil fell $5.31, or 4 percent, to settle at $129.29 a barrel, the lowest close since June 5. Futures are up 74 percent from a year ago.

Prices also rose after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth this year. The world economy will expand 4.1 percent this year, faster than the 3.7 percent pace projected in April, the IMF said yesterday.

Brent crude oil for September settlement gained as much as $2.45, or 1.9 percent, to $133.52 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $132.83 a barrel at 10:20 a.m. local time.

Yesterday, it declined $4.74, or 3.5 percent, to settle at $131.07 a barrel, the lowest close since June 11. Prices climbed to a record $147.50 on July 11.

Supply Disruptions

``At current price levels, it's seen as a good opportunity to buy back as supply bottlenecks are still a concern,'' said Toby Hassall, an analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney. ``The market is sensitive to any real or potential supply disruptions.''

Eni SpA, Italy's largest oil company, said 47,000 barrels a day of Nigerian production had been suspended yesterday after an ``unforeseen drop in pressure'' on pipelines leading to the Brass export terminal.

Crude oil may fall next week as slowing economic growth curbs fuel demand and the U.S. takes part in talks with Iran over its nuclear plans. Concern about a possible attack helped push oil prices to a record last week.

Iran Talks

Ten of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will fall through July 25. Seven of the respondents, or 32 percent, said oil will rise and five forecast little change. Last week 63 percent said futures would increase.

Undersecretary of State William Burns will participate in the European Union-Iran talks this weekend in Geneva. This is a shift in the U.S. position on talks with a government it has shunned since 1980.

Gasoline for August delivery was at $3.2126 a gallon in New York, up 4.93 cents, at 9:39 a.m. London time. Prices have fallen 9.9 percent this week.

In the U.S., regular gasoline at the pump declined 0.2 percent to $4.105 a gallon, AAA, the nation's biggest motoring group, said today on its Web site. Prices were at a record $4.114 a gallon yesterday.

[frawin]

It is somewhat encouraging to see that we are building back some of the Underground Natural Gas Storage. Hopefully we won't have many Hurricane threats which require shutting the big volume offshore gas in. On a BTU basis gas is so much cheaper than fuel oil, that power plants and other users that have the capability to switch back and forth have been using Natural Gas.

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Released: July 17, 2008 at 10:35 A.M. (Eastern time) for the Week Ending July 11, 2008.
Next Release: July 24, 2008 
Working Gas in Underground Storage, Lower 48 other formats:  Summary TXT  CSV   
Region Stocks in billion cubic feet (Bcf)  Historical Comparisons 
07/11/08 07/04/08 Change Year Ago (07/11/07) 5-Year (2003-2007) Average
Stocks (Bcf) % Change Stocks (Bcf) % Change
East 1,245 
1,177 
68 
1,382 
-9.9 
1,262   
-1.3 

West 325   
314   
11   
390 
-16.7 
347   
-6.3 

Producing 742 
717 
25 
901 
-17.6 
753 
-1.5 

Total 2,312 
2,208 
104 
2,673 
-13.5 
2,361 
-2.1 


Notes and Definitions 


Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,312 Bcf as of Friday, July 11, 2008, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 104 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 361 Bcf less than last year at this time and 49 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,361 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 17 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 68 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 11 Bcf below the 5-year average of 753 Bcf a net injection of 25 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 22 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 2,312 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. 

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range   
  Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2003 through 2007.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.   
     
Data
History (XLS)
5-Year Averages, Maximum, Minimum, and Year-Ago Stocks (XLS)
References
Methodology
Differences Between Monthly and Weekly Data
Revision Policy
Related Links
Storage Basics
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Natural Gas Navigator

[Diane Amberg]

    A "dead cat bounce?" I never heard that one before! Love those posts Frank.

[frawin]

Front Month August Crude closed at $129.80 down $0.41 , this was the last trading day for Aug 08 and Monday Sept 08 will be the front month, Natural Gas settled at $10.57, up $0.03 for Aug Gas. I think if we can avoid a shouting match with Iran, and Nigeria can hold the Militants down, we could see some more downside, if the NYMEX continues to drop more, it could cause the longs to stampede and that could bring crude down appreciably. Unfortunately if crude goes down to much then consumption will increase and the vicious cycle starts all over again. I would still like to see a nationwide speed limit of 55 MPH, a cylinder/horsepower tax and tax incentives for more efficent and hybrid vehicles. Continued research and development of alternate fuels, electric power packs and any thing else that will yield vehicles that do not need petroleum based fuel, is imperative.

[Diane Amberg]

I think you're right on all that. I saw 75 MPH speed limits on our trip...I'd never seen that before and of course some drivers were going much faster. They were good straight roads, but still... Al played around with our Honda checking mileage against engine RPMs and I was surprised it how well it did at higher speeds. I'm waiting for a mileage tax...the more miles you drive, the more you pay. I'd do pretty well. Some of you would surely be hit hard. If I have to I can buy a bike again. With as little traffic as Newark has right now it would be quite safe. But after the schools reopen, that's something else. I have to add at least 10 min. to everywhere I go.

[W. Gray]

It has not been that long ago that the speed limit on the Kansas Turnpike was 80mph.

[frawin]

Waldo, it has been 34 years, which was when the "Emergency Highway Conservation Act was passed and it lowered the speed limits to 55 MPH. Several of the Turnpikes in Oklahoma have 75 MPH now.

[W. Gray]

Just like yesterday wasn't it?

[frawin]

Seems like it sometimes

[W. Gray]

Even driving at 80 mph on the turnpike could get boring especially if you were going "all the way."

I always wondered that if you arrived at your exit gate and your time indicated you would had to have driven 90 or 100 whether you would get a ticket.

I did not mind paying the $2.55 (at one time) but I know a number of people who stayed off it for that reason.

That was some roadway for long curves and I think the standards for it might have been stricter or greater than when the Defense Highways were built.

I have not been on it for many years, now.