Better Fill up today

[frawin]

I thought this might give a better insight as to why oil has gone up so much in recent years. The number of automobiles is compounding at a very high rate.

The Physics Factbook™



Bibliographic Entry Result
(w/surrounding text) Standardized
Result
"The Automobile." New Book of Popular Science.6th ed. Republic of China: Grolier, 1978. "In 1900 only 4,192 passenger cars (and no trucks or buses) were built in the United States." 4,192
(1900)
"America Start Your Engines." US News and World Report. (27 December 1999). "At the start of the century, when America had only 8,000 cars and 144 miles of paved roads, the brake on an auto resembled that on a horse buggy: a padded stick pressed against a wheel." 8,000
(1900)
Brooklyn Public Library. Electronic Mail. 30 May 2001. "Automobile Manufacturers Association's 1970 Automobile Facts and Figures,
Passenger cars, World Total, 1968: 169,994,128.
Trucks and buses, World Total, 1968: 46,614,342." 46,614,342
(1968)

169,994,128
(1970)
"The World in Figures, compiled by The Economist, it indicates the number of passenger cars worldwide in 1985 was 375,000,000, while in the same year, the number of commercial vehicles was 109,000,000." 375,000,000
(1985)
"Citing Ward's Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures, 1999, this almanac reports that, in 1996, the most recent date covered, there were 485,954,000 cars registered worldwide, and 185,404,000 trucks and buses, for a total, worldwide, of 671,358,000 motor vehicles." 485,954,000
(1996)
Stein, Jay. New Cars for Better Future: Driving Us Crazy. Earthgreen, 1990. "You probably have known that the world's human population is increasing dangerously. So is the world's car population. In 1970, there were 200 million cars in the world. In 1990, there were almost 500 million." 200,000,000
(1970)

500,000,000
(1990)
"Automobile." World Book Encyclopedia. Chicago: World Book, 2001. "About 450 million passenger cars travel the streets and roads of the world." 450,000,000
(2001)
Cars Emit Carbon Dioxide. Global Warming, Focus on the Future, 1997. "There are over 600 million motor vehicles in the world today. If present trends continue, the number of cars on Earth will double in the next 30 years." 600,000,000
(1997)

1,200,000,000
(2030)

If an alien were to land on earth, the first thing he would notice about the "green planet"is the amount of cars there are on the streets. He would see that they come in all shapes and sizes, colors and are of many different brands. He would attempts to count the cars, but would get lost quickly because no brain can comprehend a number so large. In 1900 there were only 4,192 passenger cars built in the US (the only country to be manufacturing cars). There were no buses or trucks. By 1985 there were 109 million cars in existence. Today, with dozens of countries participating in the creation of automobiles, that number is six times larger.

It is estimated that there are approximately 600 million motor vehicles being driven on the streets of earth, the alien would be dumbfounded with this number. The biggest manufacturers are Japan, producing 8,056,000 cars in 1998, the US, with 5,554,000, and Germany with 5,348,000. With passing time, these numbers experience a rapid growth. For example, in 1960 Japan produced 185,000 cars, but by the end of the 1990s it was producing nearly 10 million a year. It is believed that at this growth rate, the number of cars on earth will double within the next 30 years. In this time scientists predict that traffic congestion will become 10 times worse than it is today. If in 2001 it is difficult to cross a major street without having to wait five minutes for the traffic to stop, how long will one have to wait in 2050?

Today the alien will notice that with such a large number of cars and people on earth, there are approximately ten people per car. But what will happen when he returns for a second trip in a hundred years? Will there be as many cars as people, or maybe by that time we'll have discovered a new method of transportation that is much more efficient and eco-friendly than the car? Only time can tell.

Marina Stasenko -- 2001

Bibliographic Entry Result
(w/surrounding text) Standardized
Result
Miller, Leslie. Cars, trucks now outnumber drivers. Salon. 29 August 2003. "There are 107 million US households, each with an average of 1.9 cars, trucks or sport utility vehicles and 1.8 drivers, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported. That equals 204 million vehicles and 191 million drivers." 204,000,000
(US 2003)

Editor's Supplement -- 2003

External links to this page:

A Look at Statistics, Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative
Are 'Alternative Fuels' Our/The Answer? Vincent Gioia, Post Chronicle and National Ledger, 16 August 2006


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another quality webpage by

Glenn Elert  home | contact

bent | chaos | eworld | facts | physics

[dnalexander]

Frank, I hope you don't mind if I call you that in this situation.

I hope you can give me\us some insight into what domestic oil prospects really are, how long it will take, and how much it will help.

My impression from what I have seen is the following.

ANWR oil is an unknown and the first step is to do more exploration to determine its real value.

Regarding the question of offshore oil and ANWR. It will take anywhere from 5 to 10 years minimum to start extracting this oil in the best of circumstances. Even in the best case scenario for oil from these sources it would result in only a 75 cent discount on the price of what we pay for gasoline today.

I have seen your many posts on how important it is for conservation and for development of other alternative sources

If all we are going to gain is a relative discount of 75 cents off of todays prices and not reap this for 10 or more years. I am more apt to change my mind and oppose offshore/ ANWR drilling . The cost benefit doesn't work for me in that situation.

What is your opinion?

David
(In this instance feel free to call me Dave)

[frawin]

David I don't mind if you call me on anything you want. I do think that we should be doing some Exploratory drilling in ANWR and the OCS. If you look at the growing demand worldwide the oil supply is going to get tighter and tighter, we have to concentrate on conservation and alternative power be it Hydrogen Fission, Battery,  whatever we have to downsize in engines and whatever we can do. It will take a decade to really get much infrastructure in place in AWR and we should be starting now. THe world oil supply is not increasing but the world usage is.
Uncle Frank

[dnalexander]

Uncle Frank I think you misread my question. Trying to have a little humor I was asking what is the expert's (you) opinion on how much domestic oil can really help us? And is what I hear on some of the tv shows correct? I know better than to be subtle on e-mail which has no tone of voice to back it up. Sorry for the misunderstanding

Here is my question:

What is the expert's (you) opinion on how much domestic oil can really help us? And is what I hear on some of the tv shows correct?

David

[frawin]

David, I am not sure what you hear on the talk shows because I don't watch talk shows. My biggest push is for conservation. we have 4.7% of the world population and we are using 25% of the world oil production, that cannot continue. The American people will only change their habits and conserve if forced to do so, and unfortunately price and penalty, (Tax on big engines) are the main ways to accomplish that. If we don't start conserving more and do some long range planning to produce more domestically the penalty is going to be worse and more chaotic than high price the penalty will be a shortage of supply at any price. If we could reduce our energy consumption by 5% a year that would be a reduction in demand by 1million barrels of oil per day per year. If we also started development of ANWR and OCS  and could start producing from these sources in say 10 years we could possibly be energy independent from foreign oil.
Frank

[dnalexander]

Thanks for  your analysis. In your opinion will it only help a relative 75 cents at the pump in todays prices? Also, if I get your point the benefit is more from utilizing all sources that reduce our dependence on foreign oil and domestic oil is just a part of that plan.

David

[dnalexander]

Uncle Frank I was calling on you not calling you on it.

David

[frawin]

We have more room in the short term for conservation than for increased supply. It will take a combination of everything in the future. Our dollar is no longer the premier currency of the world and we can only improve the dollars value by reducing our trade deficits of which oil makes up the biggest portion of that deficit. I don't know about the 75 cent number, it would be difficult to know what impact it will have.

[Catwoman]

Wheeeeeeee....this is pretty heady stuff, listening to the two of you!

[dnalexander]

Wait everybody no disagreement here. I just think my attempt at humor got us on the wrong track. I was truly asking for my Uncle Frank's opinion because I know he is an expert on this topic and I had no confidence on what I had heard on tv. I am just trying to work through all the information to make an educated decision on what is the correct plan of action. Uncle Frank I was not challenging you. I hope my questions and intent  are clear now.

David