Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Oil Falls as Supplies Cast Doubt on Biggest Surge Since April

By Grant Smith and Yee Kai Pin



Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude fell on speculation that the 6 percent rally yesterday wasn't justified because U.S. oil stockpiles are 10 percent above their five-year average.



Oil surged the most since April yesterday after the U.S. Energy Department reported a surprise decline in inventories of gasoline. Crude supplies climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 338.4 million, the report showed, more than analysts were expecting. Oil prices gained 1 percent between July and September, the third straight quarterly gain.



R20;Demand is weak and inventories are very high, so I think prices are relatively high compared to the fundamentals," said Sintje Diek, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. "It was strange we saw higher prices yesterday. Sixty-five is the level that is justified by fundamentals rather than $75."



Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 81 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $69.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $69.85 a barrel at 9:47 a.m. in London. Futures have gained 57 percent this year.



R20;Yesterday seemed like a rather disproportionate rise," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "There's a lot of data out in the next couple of days in the U.S. that would really affect perceptions of the outlook and have a bearing on the movement in oil prices."



The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.'s business barometer slid to 46.1, trailing the most pessimistic estimate from economists. Companies in the U.S. cut September payrolls by a larger-than-forecast 254,000 jobs, a report from ADP Employer Services showed, indicating the labor market may be slow to recover.



R16;Dire ShapeR17;



R20;The poor economic news suggests oil should not go too much higher in price because the U.S. economy is not improving as quickly as hoped," Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital in Seattle, said in an e-mail. "The economy is still in dire shape."



U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 211.5 million in the week to Sept. 25, the Energy Department said yesterday. Stockpiles were forecast to rise 1 million barrels, based on the median of estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.



Distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, rose 323,000 barrels to 171.1 million. That's a sixth weekly increase even as refinery output and imports dropped.



R20;While gasoline demand looks fine, distillate demand remains very weak, with an 11.6 percent year-on-year decline for September-to-date," analysts at Barclays Capital led by Paul Horsnell said in an overnight report.



Forecast of $76



The investment bank maintained its forecast that oil in New York will average $76 a barrel in the fourth quarter.



South Korea, AsiaR17;s third-biggest oil importer, bought less crude oil in September as refiners cut output in response to reduced profits. Imports fell to 67.4 million barrels, 2.5 percent less than the same month last year, according to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy.



Brent crude oil for November settlement fell as much as 73 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $68.34 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract traded at $68.48 a barrel at 9:51 a.m. London time. Yesterday, it rose 5.5 percent, the steepest increase since Sept. 16, to settle at $69.07 a barrel.



YesterdayR17;s rally R20;had a lot to do with some end-of- quarter window-dressing," Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said in a note to clients. "Today we wipe the slate clean as we begin a new quarter. Let's see if the bulls can keep the pressure on."

[frawin]

November Crude settled at $70.82, up $0.21 on the day, November-09 Natural Gas settled at $4.466, down $0.375 on the day.

[frawin]

November-09 Crude is trading at $69.70, down $1.12, November-09 Natural Gas is trading at $4.385, down $0.081.

[frawin]

Crude Oil Declines as Stocks Drop Before Unemployment Report

By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Christian Schmollinger



Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil dropped, tracking global equity markets, before a report forecast to show the jobless rate in America climbed to a 26-year high in September.



Oil snapped two days of increases as European and Asian stocks fell and U.S. index futures retreated. The U.S. jobless rate probably rose as employers kept cutting staff, according to a Bloomberg News economist survey, raising concern that consumer spending won't increase fuel demand. Crude is still set for a weekly increase after gasoline supplies dropped unexpectedly.



R20;Economic indicators are very important and there is still a lot of speculation on what oil demand will be next year," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. "Equity markets are declining and the crude market is declining as well."



Crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as $1.20, or 1.7 percent, to $69.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $69.82 at 10:53 a.m. London time. Prices are set to rise 5.8 percent this week.



U.S. unemployment likely climbed to 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983, from 9.7 percent in August, according to the median estimate of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.



R20;We are transitioning away from the green shoot environment which was confirmation of a bottoming of prices to an environment where a confirmation of growth needs to be shown," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Zug, Switzerland-based Petromatrix GmbH. "There is no clear evidence of that yet."



Stock Indexes



EuropeR17;s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 1.1 percent to 235.9 at 9:55 a.m. in London, extending its second straight weekly drop to 1.3 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 2.1 percent, bringing its slump since Sept. 25 to 2.9 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 0.2 percent.



Oil is still set for a weekly rise, paring last week's 8.4 percent loss, after gasoline supplies unexpectedly dropped. Inventories of the motor fuel declined by 1.66 million barrels, or 0.8 percent, last week, the Energy Department said in a Sept. 30 report. Stockpiles were forecast to rise 1 million barrels.



Russia increased oil output 1.7 percent to a post-Soviet high in September from a year earlier after OAO Rosneft brought a new field on line in August. Russian oil production rose to 10.01 million barrels a day from 9.84 million barrels a day in September last year, the Energy Ministry's CDU-TEK unit said in an e-mailed statement today.



Brent crude oil for November settlement dropped as much as $1.24, or 1.8 percent, to $67.95 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded at $68.27 at 10:53 a.m. local time.



Crude oil futures may decline next week as refineries slow operations and demand decreases before the North American heating season begins, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

[frawin]

November Crude settled at $69.95, down $0.87 on the day, November-09 Natural Gas settled at $4.718, up $0.252 on the day.

[frawin]

November-09 Crude is trading at $69.20, down $0.75, November-09 Natural Gas is trading at $4.725, up $0.007.
Our local pump price ranges from  $1.99 to $2.09.

[frawin]

Crude Oil Falls on Concern Global Demand Recovery Will Be Slow
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news\?pid=20601207&sid=apU.ubHdoyc0
By Yee Kai Pin and Ben Sharples
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on concern demand in the U.S., the biggest energy user, will be slow to rebound as the nation's jobless rate increased.
Oil extended losses from Oct. 2, when prices tumbled as much as 3.5 percent after a Labor Department report showed the U.S. lost more jobs than estimated in September. Economist Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said Oct. 3 equity and commodity markets may decline in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.
"Everyone wants to believe the economy will rebound slowly, will not lose ground, but I have no confidence," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. "Any support will be psychological."
Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 67 cents, or 1 percent, to $69.28 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $69.76 a barrel at 4:05 p.m. Singapore time. Futures have gained 56 percent this year.
Oil lost 1.2 percent on Oct. 2, the biggest decline since Sept. 24, to settle at $69.95 a barrel. U.S. unemployment climbed to 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983, from 9.7 percent in August, according to the Labor Department.
"We continue to expect this volatility in the data to persist until the oil market emerges from the shoulder-month period and the economic recovery gains more solid footing," analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., led by Allison Nathan, said in a report today.
'Easy Money'
Governments around the world have injected $2 trillion in stimulus while central banks have cut interest rates to close to zero in efforts to revive growth. This "easy money" has created asset bubbles, causing markets to rise too quickly, Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul.
Asian shares extended last week's losses, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulling back 0.8 percent to 113.60 as of 3:56 p.m. in Tokyo. On Oct. 3, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 1.8 percent to close at 1,025.21, posting its first two-week drop since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.8 percent at 9,487.67. European equities fluctuated between gains and losses.
"The equity markets are starting to realize that things may have run too hard, too quickly," said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. "It's all pointing downward."
Brent crude oil for November settlement fell to as low as $67.28 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, down 79 cents, or 1.2 percent. It was at $67.79 a barrel at 4:05 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost 1.6 percent on Oct. 2, the biggest decline since Sept. 24.
"Traders are trying to get a handle on which factors are moving this market right now, and prices have been moving erratically in response to a number of conflicting signals," Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in a note.
Surpassing Saudis
Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer last month. Russia increased its output 1.7 percent to a post-Soviet high in September from a year earlier, after OAO Rosneft starting pumping from a new field in August. Production rose to 10.01 million barrels a day from 9.84 million barrels, the Energy Ministry's CDU-TEK unit said Oct. 2.
"Russia again saw record production levels, so that'll hang on the market," Pervan said.
Saudi Arabia was the world's largest oil producer in 2008, according to U.S. Energy Department data and estimates from Bloomberg News.
The kingdom pumped 8.015 million barrels a day last month, based on a Bloomberg survey. It has cut output by 17 percent from 9.6 million barrels a day in July 2008 as part of an effort by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to support prices by curtailing shipments.

[frawin]

November Crude settled at $70.41, up $0.46 on the day, November-09 Natural Gas settled at $4.987, up $0.269 on the day.

[frawin]

November-09 Crude is trading at $71.05, up $0.64, November-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.02, up $0.033.

[frawin]

Oil Rises a Second Day as Weak Dollar Boosts Investment Appeal



By Grant Smith and Yee Kai Pin

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a second day in New York as the dollar's decline bolstered the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Crude traded near $71 a barrel as the dollar weakened following a report that Arab states held talks on replacing the U.S. currency in oil trades. Saudi Arabia's central bank Governor Muhammad al-Jasser denied the report. Prices climbed yesterday after data showed U.S. service industries returned to growth following 11 months of contraction.

R20;The weaker dollar is always supportive for all commodities," said Tobias Merath, a commodity analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Singapore. "We could see another couple of dollars upside for oil from the dollar, but it won't be decisive. We'd need some change in the fundamentals to break out of this $68 to $74 range."

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 90 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $71.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $70.88 a barrel at 9:35 a.m. London time. Prices have gained 59 percent this year.

Australia became the first G-20 country to raise interest rates since the start the start of the financial crisis when the central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark from a 49-year low today and signaled further increases in coming months amid signs the economy is strengthening.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, rose to 50.9, higher than forecast, from 48.4 in August, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

R16;Tentative SignsR17;

R20;WeR17;re seeing some tentative signs that consumption is picking back up," said Ben Westmore, an energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. "It continues to look like the recovery is on track."

The dollar fell to $1.4723 per euro at 9:01 a.m. in London, from $1.4648 yesterday in New York, after the U.K.-based Independent newspaper reported Arab states are seeking to move to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the yuan, the euro and gold to settle oil transactions. Commodities including gold and copper advanced.

U.S. crude oil inventories probably rose last week as refineries performed seasonal maintenance, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Commercially held stockpiles increased 2 million barrels from 338.4 million in the week ended Oct. 2, according to the median of estimates from 11 analysts.

Distillate Fuel

Distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to have declined 400,000 barrels, the survey showed. Stockpiles previously rose a sixth week to 171.1 million barrels, the highest since 1983.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will put out its own data today.