Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Crude Oil Rises as OPEC's El-Badri Says Sizeable Cut Is Needed


Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after OPEC's Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said the group needs to make a "sizeable" production cut at this week's meeting in Algeria.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 42 percent of the world's oil, will probably lower output targets by at least 2 million barrels a day, or 7.3 percent, at a Dec. 17 meeting in Oran, according to 18 of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Prices are being "buoyed by expectations that OPEC will make a significant cut," Robert Laughlin, a senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London, said by phone today. "The necessity for cuts has never been so vital."

Crude oil for January delivery rose as much as $2.72, or 5.9 percent, to $49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $48.75 at 10:36 a.m. London time.

R20;Stocks are very high, we need to take action at this time," El-Badri told reporters when he arrived at his hotel in Oran today. The oil market has 100 million barrels in excess stockpiles, he said.

OPEC is asking Russia, the largest producer outside the group, to cut oil output by between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels a day to help revive prices, OAO Lukoil Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov said in Moscow today.

Oil has fallen more than $100 a barrel from July's record as the global economic slump cuts fuel consumption. World oil demand will fall this year for the first time since 1983, the International Energy Agency said last week.

China Slows

ChinaR17;s November crude-oil processing fell to a 15-month low as an economic slowdown cut demand. Refineries processed 27.27 million tons of crude last month, or 6.64 million barrels a day, the lowest since September last year, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a faxed statement today.

R20;People were expecting Chinese demand increases to overcompensate for the demand slump in the OECD countries," said Eugen Weinberg, a senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, Germany. "Right now it's not looking like this."

A report today will probably show industrial production in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, contracted 0.9 percent last month as automakers cut output, according to a survey of economists. Sentiment among the largest manufacturers in Japan, the third-largest oil user, fell the most in 34 years, according to the nation's quarterly Tankan survey today.

Brent oil for January settlement rose as much as $2.21, or 4.8 percent, to $48.62 a barrel on LondonR17;s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract expires tomorrow. The more actively traded February futures gained 3.7 percent to $50.88 a barrel at 10:18 a.m. London time.

Iran Warning

Oil prices will fall further if OPEC nations don't cut daily output by at least 1.5 million barrels at this week's meeting, Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said yesterday.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Dec. 9, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 10,807 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 8,558 contracts, or 381 percent, from a week earlier.

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude settled at $44.51, down $1.77 on the day, Jan-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.645, up $0.157 on the day. 

[Catwoman]

So is that report the reason why gas jumped .15 today?  It went from 1.44/gal to 1.59/gal...still, can't complain...it's still far less than it was.  I think this is someone's way to keep the oil producers from cutting production...but it won't work...they're greedy.

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude is trading at $45.05, up $0.54, Jan-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.635, down $0.010.

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude settled at $43.60, down $0.91 on the day, Jan-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.751, up $0.106 on the day.   

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude is trading at $44.65 up $1.05, Jan-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.78, up $0.029.

[frawin]

OPEC Will Make Record Output Cut to Revive Oil Prices (Update1)


Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will reduce production by a record 2 million barrels a day to shore up prices as a global recession cuts demand, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to slash production quotas from 27.3 million barrels a day starting on Jan. 1, Ali al-Naimi, who sets policy in the world's largest oil exporter, said before today's meeting in Oran, Algeria. A formal announcement is expected once the meeting is over.

Oil's $100-a-barrel collapse from July's record prices has curbed revenue for producers, threatening government budget shortfalls. Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said last month that his country needs crude at $75 to spur development. Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer, may join the group in cutting output as global oil demand falls for the first time since 1983.

"Now, the question mark is non-OPEC cooperation," said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale in London. "More importantly, will the market believe that Russia or other non-OPEC" producers will agree to further reductions on top of declines that are going to happen anyway.

Russia may announce a 400,000-barrel-a-day cut in output to support the group's action, Kuwaiti Oil Minster Mohammed al-Olaim said yesterday. Azerbaijan's oil minister said today his country may lower production as much as 300,000 barrels a day.

Al-Naimi said the group's rate of compliance with a previous output cut was 85 percent. Asked if the latest reduction would start from Jan. 1, the minister replied: "Yes."

Manifa Start

Saudi Arabia's Manifa oil field will start in 2011 only if consumers require the extra crude, al-Naimi said later in an interview. "When we need it, it will be there," he said, adding that the start of the field depends on the "market situation."

Crude oil for January delivery climbed as much as $1.90 to $45.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $45.46 as of 9:37 a.m. London time.

The price slump since July spurred OPEC to reduce output for the first time in two years when it met in October. The group deferred a decision on further cuts at its Nov. 29 consultative meeting in Cairo.

Today's decision will exceed the 1.9 million-barrel cut agreed on in March 2000. That was a bigger reduction in percentage terms than today's likely 7.3 percent cut because Iranian production was excluded from the quota at that time.

The meeting started today with an opening session at 9:30 a.m. local time in the Sheraton Hotel in Oran, followed by a closed-door session at 11 a.m., a lunch with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika at 1 p.m., and a further closed-door session later in the afternoon. A press conference is tentatively scheduled for 4 p.m.

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude settled at $40.06, down $3.54 on the day, Jan-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.619, down $0.132 on the day.   

[W. Gray]

Fox Business Channel reported today that the mortgage rate is averaging at 4.7% to 5% for 30 year fixed.

One company is advertising on the AT&T web site: 30 year fixed at 4.25%.

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude is trading at $40.55 up $0.49, Jan-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.61, down$0.009.
The Natural Gas Storage report comes out today. It will be very interesting to see the amount of draw. We are drawing less gas from storage than normal, given the weather across the Nation. I think people are lowering their thermostats and putting on another layer of clothes.