Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Jan-09 Crude settled at $46.96, down $2.32 on the day, Jan-08 Natural Gas settled at $6.424, down $0.18 on the day.   
The EIA crude and products inventory report comes out tomorrow.

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Jan-09 Crude is trading at $47.30, up $0.34, Jan-08 Natural Gas is trading at $6.381, down $0.043.

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Oil Rises From 3-Year Low as OPEC Signals Plan to Cut Supplies


Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rebounded from a three-year low on speculation OPEC will cut production further this month to check the collapse in prices.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intends to redice output when it meets on Dec. 17 in Algeria, Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today. The U.S. Energy Department releases its weekly report on fuel inventories later today. Gasoline purchases last week rose from the previous week by 1.7 percent, according to MasterCard Inc.

"I'm very sure OPEC will cut on Dec. 17, it has to be at least 1 million barrels a day," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. "Prices are at a very low level, well below the marginal cost of supply, so I don't expect oil to drop too much."

Crude oil for January delivery rose as much as $1.14, or 2.4 percent, to $48.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $47.34 a barrel at 10 a.m. London time.

Yesterday, futures fell $2.32, or 4.7 percent, to $46.96 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 20, 2005. Oil has tumbled 68 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11 and is set to decline 50 percent this year, snapping six years of gains.

U.S. gasoline demand dropped 0.3 percent last week from a year earlier, the smallest decline since April, as motor fuel prices fell, MasterCard Inc. said in its SpendingPulse report.

OPEC 'Definitely' to Cut

OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will "definitely" cut output at its next meeting in Algeria on Dec. 17 after postponing a decision last month, Qatar's al- Attiyah said in Dubai today.

He added that he doesn't know by how much the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce output. The group wants crude oil prices at between $70 and $80 a barrel "because this is the range at which you can invest."

The group deferred a decision to cut output at a meeting on Nov. 29 in Cairo. OPEC agreed on Oct. 24 to cut shipments by 1.5 million barrels a day.

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri said Dec. 1 in Tehran that "for sure there will be action" at this month's summit.

U.S. Recession

The U.S. is facing its longest economic slump since World War II, said the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private non-profit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

"The demand isn't going to get any stronger in the near- term," said Toby Hassall, an analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney. "We have to get a sense of how deep the recession is going to be in the U.S."

U.S. crude inventories probably gained for a 10th week as demand continues to plummet in the world's largest energy user, according to a Bloomberg survey before the Department of Energy releases its weekly report.

The report will likely show that crude-oil supplies rose 1 million barrels last week, according to the median of 13 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the 10th consecutive weekly gain. Stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, also rose, according to the survey.

Brent crude oil for January settlement gained as much as $1.15, or 2.5 percent, to $46.59 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $46.06 a barrel at 9:27 a.m. London time. The contract declined $2.53, or 5.3 percent, to $45.44 a barrel yesterday, the lowest settlement since Feb. 15, 2005.

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Jan-09 Crude settled at $46.79, down $0.17 on the day, Jan-08 Natural Gas settled at $6.347, down $0.077 on the day.

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Jan-09 Crude is trading at $46.17, down $0.62, Jan-09 Natural Gas is trading at $6.326, down $0.021.

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Crude Oil Falls a Fifth Day as U.S. Fuel Demand Drops Further


Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a fifth day to the lowest in almost four years after a report showed U.S. fuel demand extended declines because of the country's deepening economic slump.

The average amount of fuel products such as gasoline and diesel supplied by refiners for the past four weeks was 7.9 percent less than a year earlier, according to a U.S. Energy Department report yesterday. Refinery operating rates in the world's largest energy-consuming nation declined as falling demand lowered processing profits.

"Nothing except a major shock is going to revive this market as long as risk aversion predominates," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Group in London. "Demand numbers were down again yesterday, reflecting the economic crisis."

Crude oil for January delivery today dropped as much as $1.49, or 3.2 percent, to $45.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the lowest since Feb. 9, 2005. It was at $46.13 a barrel at 9:58 a.m. London time.

Futures have tumbled 69 percent after reaching a record $147.27 on July 11.

"The most important data is the petroleum products supplied, which is the demand figures, and the trend there remains weak," said David Moore, a commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "There are broad worries about consumption."

The four-week average of petroleum products supplied in the U.S. was 19.3 million barrels a day, down from 20.9 million barrels a day a year ago, the Energy Department report showed. The U.S. entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, non-profit panel of economists that dates American business cycles, said on Dec. 1.

U.S. Inventories

Crude-oil supplies fell 456,000 barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the first decline in 10 weeks, the department said. Inventories were forecast to rise 1 million barrels, according to the median of 13 responses in a Bloomberg survey.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, climbed 2.35 million barrels to 22.9 million last week. The increase left inventories at their highest since June 2007.

Refineries operated at 84.3 percent of capacity, down 1.8 percentage points from the week before. It was the biggest one- week drop since September, when hurricanes Gustav and Ike struck the Gulf Coast.

The price difference between gasoline futures and oil contracts, known as the crack spread and seen as a profit margin for refiners, was at minus $3.07 a barrel. The crack has been negative for almost two months, reducing the incentive to process fuels.

Widening Recession

Gasoline stockpiles dropped 1.53 million barrels to 198.9 million in the week ended Nov. 28. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 1.72 million barrels to 125 million last week.

Brent crude oil for January settlement fell as much as $1.64, or 3.6 percent, to $43.80 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $44.66 at 9:23 a.m. London time.

Oil prices have dropped as the U.S., Japan and Europe are all in recession for the first time since World War II.

Service industries in the U.S. contracted the most in at least 11 years, the Institute of Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing business showed. Companies eliminated 250,000 jobs in October, the most since November 2001, ADP Employer Services said yesterday.

The Labor Department's November jobs report may show payrolls fell by 330,000, the biggest decrease since 1982, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

"I do think this non-farm payrolls data will be quite important to the market," said Commonwealth Bank's Moore. "I'm sure some of it's factored into the market but the actual printing of the number might still cause people to worry about oil consumption in the U.S."

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Jan-09 Crude settled at $43.67, down $3.12 on the day, Jan-08 Natural Gas settled at $6.017, down $0.330 on the day.

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Jan-09 Crude is trading at $44.30, up $0.63, Jan-08 Natural Gas is trading at $5.779, down $0.238.

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Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since March 2003 on Demand Slip

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set for its biggest weekly decline since March 2003, trading near a four-year low as the economic contraction and job losses in the U.S. cause a slump in fuel demand.

Oil has fallen 19 percent this week after the U.S. was declared to be in a recession. Energy, wheat and copper led a plunge in commodities yesterday as the Standard & Poor's GSCI raw materials index fell to the lowest since February 2005. A report today will probably show U.S. November payrolls dropped the most since the 2001 terrorist attacks.

"All the weak economic data is really disturbing the oil market," said Sintje Diek, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. "If the labor market is weaker again, we will see lower consumption by consumers, they will lower their demand of gasoline."

Crude oil for January delivery was at $44.29 a barrel, up 62 cents, at 10:27 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, futures tumbled $3.12, or 6.7 percent, to $43.67 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since Jan. 5, 2005.

Oil prices have fallen 70 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Crude's weekly drop is the largest since a 24 percent decline during the week ending March 21, 2003.

The U.S. entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, non-profit panel of economists that dates American business cycles, said Dec. 1. U.S. equity markets declined yesterday as oil stocks dropped on forecasts of $25-a-barrel crude from analysts at Merrill Lynch.

Fuel Demand

U.S. fuel demand during the four weeks ended Nov. 28 was down 6.2 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report showed Dec. 3.

The GSCI raw materials index has slumped 63 percent from its peak on July 3 as a credit crunch and global recession slash demand for energy and raw materials.

The economies of the U.S., Japan and Europe are all in recession for the first time since World War II. The European Central Bank yesterday cut its benchmark interest rate by the most in its 10-year history to stem the collapse. The Bank of England and Sweden's central bank followed with reductions.

Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $42.75 a barrel, up 47 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 10:11 a.m. London time. The contract yesterday fell $3.16, or 7 percent, to $42.28, the lowest settlement since Jan. 5, 2005.

Qatar's oil minister said on Dec. 3 that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will "definitely" cut output at its next meeting in Algeria on Dec. 17.

"I am sure we will see a cut in December," said HSH Nordbank's Diek. "The cuts in oil production should stabilize prices."

OPEC oil ministers agreed on Oct. 24 in Vienna that the 11 members with quotas would lower supply by 1.5 million barrels a day starting in November. Production by the 11, excluding Iraq and Indonesia, declined 725,000 barrels to 28.24 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

[srkruzich]

I saw where merriyl lynch is predicting oil to drop below 25 a barrel by next year