Normalcy Bias... why do we ignore changing conditions

[Patriot]

In addition to catastrophic disaster situations, could normalcy bias help explain why some people refuse to honestly examine local events and instead defend otherwise indefensible actions on the part of community leaders?  Does the need to maintain the status quo keep some from honestly examining local events that are out of the ordinary, in spite of evidence that the events are outside the accepted norm?  Are we self blinded by our hopeful hidden desires for positive change, falsely believing that all that glitters is gold?  It may be easy to see on a global or national scale, but what about our own back yard?


The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before.[citation needed] People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation

The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information.[citation needed] Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.

More info:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias