Note: The weekly eia/doe reportshows total Commercial Petroleum Inventories declined by 8.1 million barrels last week.
Oil Heads for Biggest Annual Gain in a Decade Amid Iran Unrest
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed, heading for its biggest annual gain in a decade, on forecasts that U.S. stockpiles are narrowing while unrest in Iran sows concerns supply will be disrupted.
U.S. crude inventories likely fell by 1.85 million barrels last week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before an Energy Department report due today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Iran, holder of the world's second-largest crude reserves, detained about 1,000 people after the biggest anti- government demonstrations in six months.
"Stocks are showing the market is getting towards a more balanced situation, though it will take time," said Alexandra Kogelnig, a consultant with JBC Energy GmbH in Vienna. "Tensions in Iran are always a factor even if there is nothing immediately happening, as if something major happens it will affect exports."
Crude oil for February delivery was at $78.70 a barrel, 14 cents lower in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as of 11:50 a.m. London time. It earlier rose as much as 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $79.19 a barrel. Futures are set for a 77 percent gain this year, the biggest since 1999. Prices have tripled in the past decade.
Iran yesterday accused Western countries of inciting clashes on Dec. 27 between opposition supporters and security forces in the capital Tehran and other cities, which killed at least eight people, according to state media reports.
"After strong gains over the past year, there's a propensity to lock in profits and reposition for 2010," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. "Now, I think you're going to see sideways movement."
Dollar Gains
A stronger dollar is limiting gains in oil prices by reducing the appeal of commodities as an investment. The dollar may rise against the euro for a third day before a report economists said will show U.S. manufacturing expanded in December for a fifth month, adding to signs the economy is gaining momentum. The dollar traded for $1.4338 against the euro at 9:38 a.m. London time.
A "major Arctic wave" heading for the U.S. will likely cause millions of households to boost heating fuel use this winter, according to State College, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather.com.
Consumer Confidence
U.S. inventories of crude oil probably declined from 327.5 million the prior week, according to the Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts before the Energy Department's report. Gasoline supplies are forecast to climb by 1 million barrels, and distillates, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, to fall by 2.23 million.
The American Petroleum Institute said yesterday inventories of crude oil rose 1.73 million barrels last week to 330.5 million. Refinery utilization rates fell to 78.2 percent in the week ended Dec. 25 from 78.4 percent a week earlier, according to the industry-funded API.
"It seems the demand outlook is the very big swing variable in the oil market at the moment," said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank, in a Bloomberg Television interview. "If you couple that with the fact that you have a large supply overhang, it's difficult to see the oil price moving higher in a trend sense."
Brent crude for February settlement rose for a sixth day, advancing as much as 56 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $78.20 a barrel on LondonR17;s ICE Futures Europe exchange.
China will surpass the US in energy consumption in the future. In my opinion China's ever increasing
energy demand, which drove the price of oil to $150.00/barrel, is one of the main causes of the worldwide recession.
China's 2009 Crude Oil Imports Advance to Record
By Bloomberg News
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, increased crude oil purchases to a record last year to meet rising demand spurred by the government's $586 billion stimulus spending.
Crude oil imports reached 203.8 million metric tons last year, or 4.1 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs today. Net purchases reached a record 198.7 million tons.
Government stimulus may boost ChinaR17;s 2009 economic growth by more than 8 percent, according to official forecasts. The world's fastest-growing major economy may increase its refining capacity by 2.9 million barrels a day between 2008 and 2014 to meet increased fuel consumption, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said in a report on Dec. 11.
R20;Oil imports have surged in 2009 also as the nation has been increasing emergency stockpiling," Wang Aochao, head of China energy research at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd., said by telephone in Shanghai. "We expect imports to still rise more than 10 percent this year."
China has finished building its emergency oil reserves under the first phase of its stockpiling plan, the National Energy Administration said in June. Late last year, the country started building stockpile bases under the second phase.
Net crude oil imports rose to 20.9 million tons last month, from 16.7 million tons in November, today's data showed.
Imports of oil products, including gasoline and diesel, fell 5.4 percent to 37 million tons last year and reached 3.3 million tons in December, the customs data showed.
Exports of oil products gained 46 percent to 25 million tons in 2009 and stood at 3.67 million tons in December.
Exports of coal, used in power generation and steelmaking, declined to 22.4 million tons in 2009 and stood at 2.07 million tons in December from 1.43 million tons in November. The customs agency didn't give coal import figures.
Today's eia/DOE Inventory report is bearish for near term Gasoline prices and pump prices should be coming down near term.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending January 8, 2010
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the
week ending January 8, 213 thousand barrels per day above the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 81.3 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.5 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 3.9 million
barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.9 million barrels per day last week, up 540
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.2 million barrels per day, 1.3 million
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor
gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
components) last week averaged 892 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel
imports averaged 537 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At
331.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 3.8 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of
the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending
components increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.4
million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for
this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.5 million
barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week,
and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.0
million barrels per day, down by 0.9 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9
million barrels per day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 4.0 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 3.2 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year
Oil Falls for a Fifth Day on Dollar Strength, Rising Supplies
By Rachel Graham
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a fifth day as the dollar gained against the euro, curbing demand for commodities as a currency hedge.
Oil dropped below $80 a barrel this week after a U.S. government report showed supplies of crude and fuels increased. The dollar gained on speculation a slowdown in Chinese bank lending will damp growth in the worlds third-biggest economy.
If the economy is improving there is an expectation oil stocks will start to fall, but its not happening, said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodities research at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. The dollar is an extra point for today.
Crude oil for February delivery fell as much as 62 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $78.77 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $78.89 at 9:50 a.m. London time. A close at that level would mean a drop of 4.4 percent this week.
The dollar traded as high as $1.4378 against the euro.
Crude oil may fall next week on speculation that U.S. inventories will climb for a third week and as fuel demand declines, a Bloomberg News survey of 41 analysts showed.
Oil prices will drop through Jan. 22, according to 42 percent of the respondents. Thirteen respondents, or 32 percent, forecast an increase and 11 said prices will be little changed. Last week, 44 percent of analysts forecast a decline in futures.
Oil settled below $80 a barrel on Jan. 13, the first time this year, after the U.S. Energy Department said crude and fuel inventories increased. Distillate fuel stockpiles rose for the first week in five.
Crude oil stockpiles climbed for a second week, adding 3.7 million barrels to 331 million barrels, the Energy Department said Jan. 13. Gasoline and distillate inventories also rose.
Brent crude for March settlement fell as much as 67 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $77.97 at 9:51 a.m. London time.
Oil Falls to Lowest This Year on Equities, Global Stockpiles
By Grant Smith
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to its lowest this year in New York, declining in tandem with equities, on speculation global stockpiles remain more than adequate.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't need to raise oil production this year as its output of natural gas liquids increases, the International Energy Agency's deputy executive director said yesterday. Oil also slipped as Japan Airlines Corp., AsiaR17;s largest carrier, filed for bankruptcy, raising concern its fuel hedges may be liquidated.
R20;I still see prices at current levels as overvalued by about $2 a barrel," said Andy Sommer, an oil analyst at Eleltrizitaets-Gesellschaft in Dietikon, Switzerland. "Increasing demand in China and emerging markets is still not strong enough to offset declines in the other countries. OPEC is producing too much to balance the market."
Crude oil for February delivery dropped as much as 93 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $77.07 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the lowest since Dec. 24. It was at $77.49 as of 10:31 a.m. London time.
Futures dropped 5.7 percent last week, the first weekly decline in five, after U.S. fuel supplies rose. Yesterday's trades will be combined with today's because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the U.S.
February futures, which settled at $78 a barrel on Jan. 15, expire tomorrow. The more widely traded March contract fell as much as 97 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $77.40 a barrel.
German Confidence
European stock prices declined before a report that may show investor confidence in Germany, the region's biggest economy, dropped for a fourth month in January amid signs the recovery is slowing. Asian shares also fell, while U.S. index futures were little changed.
Japan Airlines Corp. filed for bankruptcy under a government-backed plan to help reduce debts, cut unprofitable operations and access new investment.
Brent crude oil for March settlement fell as much as $1.28, or 1.7 percent, to $75.82 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded for $76.26 as of 10:33 a.m. local time.
March Crude is trading at $77.825, down $1.50
Oil Falls on Forecasts of U.S. Supply Increase, Dollar Strength
By Grant Smith and Ann Koh
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell in New York before a report forecast to show U.S. crude inventories climbed for a third week, and as a stronger dollar curbed oil's appeal for hedging inflation.
Oil pared some of yesterday's gains on speculation China, the second-biggest oil user, may step up efforts to curb credit growth, damping energy demand. The euro fell to the lowest level in five months against the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced assets like oil appear more expensive to foreign investors.
R20;U.S. inventories still need to come down," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. "The market doesn't have much impetus as it awaits the data, with the dollar capping gains across commodities."
Crude oil for February delivery fell as much as 97 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $78.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $78.28 at 9:44 a.m. London time. February futures expire today. The more-active March contract declined as much as 96 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $78.36.
Chinese regulators asked some of the nation's banks to limit credit after banks lent a record 9.59 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) last year. U.S. crude inventories probably climbed for a third week through Jan. 15, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow.
The dollar climbed to $1.42 per euro as of 9:03 a.m. in London from $1.4288 yesterday in New York, on concern GreeceR17;s deteriorating finances will weigh on EuropeR17;s economic recovery. It earlier strengthened to $1.4167, the highest since Aug. 19.
Stockpiles Gain
The Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that crude oil stockpiles climbed 2.5 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 15 from 331 million the prior week, according to the median of 11 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies probably increased 2 million barrels, the survey showed.
Futures dropped 5.7 percent last week, the first weekly decline in five, after U.S. fuel supplies rose. Oil surged to $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11 as cold weather in the eastern U.S. bolstered consumption of heating fuels and the dollar declined against the euro.
R20;The market appears to have fully priced in the cold snap in the U.S., suggesting any improvement in weather conditions, likely off a cold base, will trigger selling," Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 20,000 barrels to 85.15 million barrels a day. Consumption will expand 820,000 barrels a day, or 1 percent, from 2009, according to the monthly report from OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat released yesterday.
Brent crude oil for March settlement declined as much as 98 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $76.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $76.95 at 9:46 a.m. London time.
March Crude is trading down $0.80 this morning at $74.45
By Grant Smith
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell before a report forecast to show that crude supplies increased in the U.S. last week, while concerns persisted that China will tighten credit.
Oil traded below $75 a barrel in New York as the dollar strengthened against the euro, dulling the appeal of crude as an inflation hedge. Crude was also hurt by speculation that oil demand may wane in China, where banks have begun restricting new loans, responding to a push by regulators to contain credit.
"Fundamentally we now have a very bearish situation," said Gerrit Zambo, a trader at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich. "Oil stockpiles are still very high worldwide. China might tighten its monetary policy. That's also maybe an indication for a slowdown in the economic recovery."
Crude for March delivery fell as much as $1.12, or 1.5 percent, to $74.14 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.50 a barrel at 1:40 p.m. in London. The contract climbed 72 cents to $75.26 yesterday, its first gain in four days. Futures have fallen 6.3 percent this year.
The U.S. currency strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.4076 per euro as of 1:24 p.m. London time.
Lending growth in China slowed in the third week of January from the month's first two weeks, the Shanghai Securities News reported today, citing unidentified people.
A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show crude-oil inventories rose last week as imports gained and refineries shut units, based on a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
Rising Stockpiles
Stockpiles probably climbed 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22 from 330.6 million the prior week, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates. Refining rates, already at their lowest outside the Atlantic hurricane season since at least 1989, probably fell 0.3 percentage point.
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute in Washington, D.C., will release its own inventory report at around 4:30 p.m. local time today. Daily trading in New York is settled at 2:30 p.m. local time when floor trading closes.
The recovery in oil demand will slow down toward the end of the year, and any reduction in inventories will be checked by rising production of natural-gas-liquids, according to the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies.
"Although we do not expect oil prices to fall heavily, the dramatic recovery seen in 2009 may now have run out of steam," according to analysts at the center, founded by former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani. "Whatever growth does materialize will be heavily weighted toward the beginning of the year."
U.S. Inventories
Prices between $70 and $80 are "almost perfect" and provide sufficient returns for investment without harming the global economy, Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said yesterday.
Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The group, which sells about 40 percent of the world's oil, is pumping about 1.77 million barrels a day more than output quotas set late 2008 to prevent a glut. Iraq isn't restricted by quota.
"OPEC are going to have real problems curbing their supply," Altavest's Hartmann said. "This price level isn't killing or crimping the economy. But the supply eventually is going to kill this market."
Brent oil for March settlement fell as much as $1.06, or 1.4 percent, to $72.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $73.05 a barrel at 1:40 p.m. in London. Yesterday, prices gained 86 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $73.69 a barrel.
Oil Rises With Equities, Capping First Monthly Drop Since July
By Grant Smith and Yee Kai Pin
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose, limiting its first monthly drop since July, as advancing equity markets reaffirmed confidence in the economic recovery.
The U.S. Senate yesterday unanimously passed sanctions on foreign companies that sell refined petroleum to Iran, holder of the world's second-largest crude reserves. Oil has lost 6.7 percent this month on concern the U.S. government will limit trading by banks and that China will take further steps to cool its economy.
"We're seeing some stabilization as European equities are mostly positive and the dollar is a little weaker," said Eugen Weinberg, commodity strategist with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "Fundamentals are not positive at the moment. The demand side is recovering but definitely not as strong as expected."
Crude oil for March delivery increased as much as 45 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.09 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded for $73.90 at 10:09 a.m. local time.
The dollar was little changed at $1.3975 against the euro after earlier reaching $1.3913, the highest since July 14.
European stocks advanced, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index trimming its third straight weekly drop, as Infineon Technologies AG raised its earnings outlook and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG said it may have a pretax profit.
The U.S., its European allies and UN inspectors suspect Iran is trying to develop the means to build a nuclear weapon under the guise of a civilian atomic-energy program. The U.S. says Iranian leaders are rebuffing efforts to settle the dispute.
'Biggest Risk'
"By far the biggest risk for the market is something happening to Iran," said Commerzbank's Weinberg. "Should prices recover, you'll start to see more talk about this in the market. But it's not going to lead to a scarcity of oil with capacity in the other OPEC countries."
Oil may fall next week as U.S. supplies increased and fuel demand lags behind year-earlier levels, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Eighteen of 38 analysts and traders polled, or 47 percent, said prices will decline through Feb. 5. Ten respondents, or 26 percent, forecast an increase and 10 said futures will be little changed. Last week, 43 percent of respondents predicted a drop.
U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories are more than 4 percent over the five-year average level, according to Energy Department data released on Jan. 27. Distillate fuel stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, climbed to 157.5 million barrels last week, 16.2 percent above the average.
Brent crude oil for March settlement was at $72.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, up 28 cents at 9:22 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract slipped 11 cents to $72.13, the lowest settlement since Dec. 15.
"The optimism that led into 2010 has dried up very quickly," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. "Economies have been running off stimulus packages, not off genuine demand."
Oil Rises a Third Day on U.S. Supply Forecast, Dollar Weakness
By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York for a third day before a report forecast to show that U.S. supplies of distillate fuels such as heating oil shrank last week.
Oil was also supported as a decline in the U.S. dollar heightened crude's appeal for hedging inflation. The U.S. Energy Department will likely report a 1.15 million-barrel reduction in U.S. distillate stockpiles for the week ended Jan. 29, according to a Bloomberg News survey. OPEC is unlikely to change oil- production quotas at its meeting next month, group Secretary- General Abdalla el-Badri said yesterday.
R20;All eyes are back on U.S. fuel inventories today and we expect a small draw in distillates," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. "There's no point in OPEC doing anything, as prices are okay for most members, while hiking output would oversupply the market."
Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 81 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $78.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $77.87 at 9:35 a.m. London time. Yesterday, it gained 3.8 percent, the most since Sept. 30, to settle at $77.23.
Brent crude oil for March settlement rose as much as 93 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $76.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract earlier fell as much as 43 cents to $75.63. Yesterday, it rose 4 percent, the most since Nov. 16, to settle at $76.06.
Dollar Index Falls
The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, dropped for a third day before a report that may show U.S. service industries expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year. The index was at 78.708 at 9:27 a.m. London time.
R20;If people are optimistic about the economy and buying equities, then that will drive oil prices higher," said Clarence Chu, a trader with options dealer Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "Having the dollar index drop below 79 is enough to move oil higher."
U.S. distillate stockpiles dropped 1.15 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 29 from 157.5 million the prior week, according to the median of 16 estimates in Bloomberg's survey. The Energy Department will release its report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
Analysts were split over whether stockpiles of crude oil rose or fell last week. Inventories climbed 400,000 barrels from 326.7 million the previous week, according to the survey. Eight of the respondents said there was a gain, six forecast a decline and two estimated that there was no change.
Yesterday the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories rose 4.72 million barrels last week.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of global oil supply, will meet on March 17 in Vienna to review production targets. The organization's commitment to record output cuts announced in late 2008 has flagged after a recovery in prices, which rose by 78 percent last year.
Crude is trading flat to off $0.25 this morning.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending January 29, 2010
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.5 million barrels per day during the
week ending January 29, 163 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 77.7 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.6 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 3.5 million
barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.4 million barrels per day last week, up 559
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, 1.4 million
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged 926 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 438 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At
329.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 1.3 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of
the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending
components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 1.0 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased
by 2.9 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels
last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of
year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 18.8
million barrels per day, down by 2.0 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.6
million barrels per day, down by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the last
four weeks, down by 9.1 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand
is 0.2 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week
period last year.
Oil Rises From Seven-Week Low on Equity Gain, Dollar Weakness
By Grant Smith
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rebounded from a seven-week low as equity markets advanced while a weaker U.S. dollar restored crudes appeal for hedging inflation.
Oil also gained after Nigerian rebels said they disabled a pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc. On Feb. 5, the commodity fell to its lowest since mid-December as higher-than- forecast job losses in the U.S. depressed global stock and commodity prices.
The recovery were seeing today is still driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, led by the dollar and stock markets, said Hannes Loacker, an analyst with Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. A price of $70 is more in line with fundamentals than the higher levels we saw before, and as the year goes on the supply-demand picture will tighten.
Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as $1.20, or 1.7 percent, to $72.39 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was up 93 cents at $72.12 at 9:28 a.m. in London. The contract dropped 2.7 percent to $71.19 a barrel on Feb. 5, the lowest settlement since Dec. 15.
European stocks gained, rebounding from the biggest weekly slump in 11 months, as investors weighed European finance chiefs endorsement of a Greek austerity plan. The dollar was 0.6 percent weaker at $1.3708 against the euro as of 9:27 a.m. London time.
A U.S. government report tomorrow may show wholesale inventories increased for a third month in December, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Attack in Nigeria
Everyone is going to be watching every piece of economic data like a hawk, looking for signs of self-sustaining economic recovery, said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. The geopolitical risk factors were on the back burner through 2009, but in 2010 they are back and the big one is Nigeria.
An overnight attack at Obunoma, south of the Nigerian oil hub of Port Harcourt, cut supplies from the Nembe Creek, Soku, Belema and Ekulama fields, the Joint Revolutionary Council said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Shell hasnt received any report of the attack, the companys Nigeria spokesman, Precious Okolobo, said yesterday.
March Brent crude, which expires Feb. 11, rose as much as $1.23, or 1.8 percent, to $70.82 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $70.56 at 9:27 a.m. London time.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators reduced their bets on rising oil prices for a third week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Speculative net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity, fell 14 percent to 86,027 contracts on the New York exchange in the week ended Feb. 2, the Washington-based commission said in its weekly report.
Crude Oil Rises a Fourth Day as IEA Bolsters Demand Outlook
By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a fourth day in New York as the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2010.
The IEA increased its estimate for world demand by 170,000 barrels a day to 86.5 million barrels a day on accelerating growth in emerging markets. That means a gain of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, from 2009. Still, the IEA expects no consumption growth this year from the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
R20;The IEA is adjusting emerging market growth assumptions up in China and the rest of Asia on higher GDP," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity derivatives research at BNP Paribas SA in London. "But you still face considerable uncertainty as to the recovery of demand in OECD countries."
Crude for March delivery rose as much as 58 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $75.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $74.78 at 9:52 a.m. London time.
Oil climbed 1 percent yesterday as the U.S. Department of Energy raised its demand projection to 85.3 million barrels a day from 85.18 million in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Prices also gained after the U.S. Treasury Department announced restrictions on four companies and one individual with links to IranR17;s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. has accused the Guard of developing weapons of mass destruction and supporting terrorism.
Iran 'in Background'
Tens of thousands of Iranians joined a rally in Tehran today to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic regime, as opposition leaders called for protests and riot police deployed throughout the city. Iran holds the world's second-largest crude reserves.
R20;At this point I think Iran is still in the background," said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "But if the rhetoric ratchets up, that's going to push it more into the light and provide a good excuse for investors to buy back in and support prices."
An Energy Department inventory report scheduled for yesterday was delayed until tomorrow because a snowstorm shut down government offices in Washington. The report may show stockpiles of oil grew by 1.6 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 analysts.
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported this week that U.S. crude inventories rose to the highest level since October. Stockpiles gained 7.2 million barrels to 337.6 million last week, according to the Washington-based group.
Brent crude for March settlement gained as much as 54 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $73.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $72.83 a barrel at 9:46 a.m. London time. The contract added 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $72.54 a barrel yesterday.
The March contract expires today. The more actively traded April future was at $73.44 a barrel, up 32 cents, at 9:55 a.m. London time, after rising 0.6 percent yesterday.
Crude Falls After China Seeks to Cool Expansion, Dollar Gains
By Grant Smith
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell in New York for the first day in five after China, the worlds second-largest oil consumer, sought to cool its economic expansion.
The Peoples Bank of China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month, sending crude below $74 a barrel and strengthening the dollar. A weekly Energy Department report today may show crude and gasoline supplies rose last week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
China has surprised the market a bit in that its happening so quickly after the last increase in the countrys reserve requirement, said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London.
Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as $1.72, or 2.3 percent, to $73.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was trading at $73.95 at 10:49 a.m. in London.
Brent crude oil for April delivery fell as much as $1.52, or 2.1 percent, to $72.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract was at $72.91 at 10:50 a.m. London time.
Chinas central bank said today it will raise banks reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. Chinas policy makers aim to avert asset bubbles and restrain inflation after flooding the economy with money last year to drive recovery from the first global recession since World War II.
Dollar Recovery
Everything has had a bit of a setback this morning, said Tony Machacek, a broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. The Chinese decision has helped a dollar recovery, which in turn has led commodities like oil lower.
Yesterday, New York crude futures rose 1 percent to settle at $75.28.
The Energy Departments weekly report, delayed by two days because of snowstorms, will probably show U.S. crude stockpiles climbed 1.6 million barrels in the week to Feb. 5, based on the median estimate from 16 analysts.
Gasoline inventories are expected to have rebounded 600,000 barrels from the previous week. On Feb. 9, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported crude supplies rose to the highest level since October last year and gasoline reached 228.8 million barrels, the most since March 1999.
The oversupply in the market is quite significant at the moment, said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Its difficult to see why prices will continue to hover around current levels. A price below $70, maybe around $60, would be more sustainable.
Markets appear to be pretty well supplied for the short term.Oil
Trades Near $74 on China Economic Tightening, Saudi Concern
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Oil was little changed near $74 a barrel after China sought to temper its economic expansion and a Saudi adviser said the U.S. aims to cut oil imports.
China, the world's second-largest oil consuming country, ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month on Feb. 12, signaling slower economic growth and reduced energy demand. Saudi oil ministry adviser Mohammad al-Sabban said the U.S. is promoting nuclear power as a means of cutting oil imports.
"The market is a bit uneasy about the Chinese tightening," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. China is not "yet the largest importer; it's not yet the largest consumer region. Still, it is one of the most important ones."
Crude oil for March delivery traded at $74.25 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:20 p.m. London time. The contract fell $1.15, or 1.5 percent, to settle at $74.13 on Feb. 12, the first decline in five days.
The dollar advanced to $1.3608 against the euro as of 1:21 p.m. London time from $1.3632. The Dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose 0.1 percent to 80.363. A stronger dollar curbs demand for commodities as an alternative investment.
"What we would be looking for in the next week is how the U.S. dollar is going to behave," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity derivatives research at BNP Paribas SA in London. "You are going to be looking at how the dollar is going to behave against a number of currency pairs."
U.S. Imports
The People's Bank of China said it will raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. China's policy makers aim to avert asset bubbles and restrain inflation after flooding the economy with money last year to drive a recovery from the first global recession since World War II.
Sabban said at a conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, today that the U.S. seeks to cut oil imports by 1.4 million barrels a day, about the same amount that the U.S. currently brings in from Saudi Arabia.
Exxon Mobil International Ltd. Vice President Brad Corson said today at the IP Week conference in London that energy demand will rise 35 percent from 2005 through 2030. Demand growth would have doubled over the period without energy-saving measures, Corson said.
Markets in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia are closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. U.S. markets are shut today for Presidents' Day.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, shoring up support in the Middle East for a hard line against Iran, said "evidence is accumulating" of that nation's intention to produce nuclear weapons. Clinton spoke last night at the U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Doha, Qatar. Iran holds the world's second-biggest oil reserves.
Brent crude for April delivery traded at $72.84 a barrel, up 8 cents, as of 1:28 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
Oil Declines as Dollar Rises, U.S. Fuel Stockpiles Increase
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened and an industry report showed an increase in U.S. fuel supplies, fanning concern that demand in the world's biggest energy user is slow to recover.
Oil dropped from a four-week high as the U.S. currency extended gains against the euro, damping investor demand for commodities. The American Petroleum Institute said U.S. gasoline inventories rose last week to the highest since March 1999 and distillate fuel stockpiles ended a four-week drawdown. An Energy Department report today is forecast to show crude oil supplies increased, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
"Demand in the U.S. is still really weak," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst with Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. "Today's figures will be a trigger for prices. You'd have to see a draw in crude stocks of around 3 million barrels to move prices substantially higher."
Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as $1.01, or 1.3 percent, to $76.32 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $76.66 at 11:45 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract rose 32 cents to $77.33, the highest settlement since Jan. 20. Futures have lost 3.4 percent this year.
The dollar approached a nine-month high against the euro as signs of momentum in the U.S. economy added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will be one of the first major central banks to remove stimulus measures.
The U.S. currency strengthened to $1.3566 per euro as of 11:45 a.m. in London from $1.3607 in New York yesterday.
Gasoline Demand Falls
"The global economy is still realistically weak," said Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. "I don't see a lot of issues in terms of supply constraints out there and demand is relatively weak."
Brent crude oil for April delivery fell as much as $1, or 1.3 percent, to $75.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $75.46 at 11:44 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract gained 0.8 percent to $76.27, the highest settlement since Jan. 20.
U.S. gasoline consumption fell last week to the lowest level in 16 months as record winter snowstorms kept drivers off the roads from Texas to New England, according to MasterCard Inc., the second-largest credit-card company.
Motorists bought an average 8.84 million barrels a day of gasoline in the week ended Feb. 12, MasterCard said yesterday in its SpendingPulse report. Demand was the lowest since October 2008, when supplies were limited by two Gulf Coast hurricanes and the U.S. economy was spiraling into the worst recession since the 1930s.
Crude Supplies
U.S. crude oil inventories slipped 63,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 12, according to yesterday's API data. The Energy Department's report today will probably show supplies rose 1.73 million barrels from 331.4 million previously, based on the median of estimates from 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The industry-funded API collects stockpile data on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that all inventory holders file reports with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.
Distillate fuel inventories, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to have fallen 1.5 million barrels from 156.2 million the prior week, according to the Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stockpiles probably increased 1.5 million barrels from 230.4 million.
In Germany, January sales of gasoil rose 8.5 percent from December to a 10-month high as cold weather boosted demand for the heating fuel, the country's petroleum association said today.
"We're bound in a range between $70 and $80," said Raiffeisen's Loacker. "If a break above $80 happens it will be driven by sentiment, by higher stock markets and a weaker U.S. dollar."
The Department of Energy will put out its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 11 a.m. in Washington, a day later than usual because of the Presidents' Day holiday Feb. 15.
Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Gains After Fed Raises Discount Rate
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for the first day in four after the Federal Reserve raised its discount rate, pushing the dollar higher and damping investor demand for commodities.
Oil pared yesterday's 2.2 percent rally as the U.S. currency traded at a nine-month high against the euro. The Fed raised the rate it charges banks for direct loans for the first time in more than three years. Energy Department data showed U.S. crude inventories rose 3.09 million barrels last week, topping a forecast for a 1.73 million-barrel increase in a Bloomberg News survey.
"The decline we're seeing today is on the stronger dollar after the Fed action and the re-appearance of risk aversion," said Tobias Merath, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. "There is an improvement in fundamentals, but we still have an inventory overhang in oil products that's weighing on refinery margins."
Crude oil for March fell as much as $1.30, or 1.6 percent, to $77.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $78.05 at 11:58 a.m. London time.
Yesterday, the contract rose $1.73 to $79.06, the highest settlement price since Jan. 14. Futures are set for a 5.3 percent gain this week.
The dollar advanced for a third day against the 16-nation euro after the Fed raised the discount rate by a quarter point to 0.75 percent. The U.S. currency was at $1.3499 per euro at 11:59 a.m. in London, compared with $1.3527 yesterday in New York. A stronger dollar damps investor demand for commodities.
"The news from the Fed seems to have knocked the oil price off its peak," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "My reading of the EIA report was that it was a bit of a mixed bag and not particularly supportive of the oil price."
Price Survey
Oil may fall next week on rising U.S. inventories and speculation demand will decline next month, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Twenty-three of 45 analysts and traders polled, or 51 percent, said prices will decline through Feb. 26. Fourteen respondents, or 31 percent, forecast a gain and eight said oil will be little changed. Last week, 50 percent of respondents predicted there would be an increase in futures.
U.S. crude inventories climbed to 334.5 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 12, the most in 10 weeks, according to yesterday's report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical unit of the Energy Department. Total fuel consumption over a four-week period rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier to 19 million barrels a day.
Gasoline stockpiles increased 1.62 million barrels to 232.1 million, the report showed. That's the highest since March 2008, even as imports dropped and refineries produced less.
Leading Indicators
Oil reached a five-week high yesterday as the New York- based Conference Board's measure of the economic outlook for three to six months increased for a 10th month.
The series of gains in the leading indicators index is the longest since 2004. Companies stepped up production and asked employees to work longer hours to meet increased demand, which may help spur hiring in coming months.
Brent crude for April delivery fell as much as $1.33, or 1.7 percent, to $76.45 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $76.67 at 11:58 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.51, or 2 percent, to $77.78, the highest settlement since Jan. 14.
Front Month, April Crude is trading down $1.25 this morning.
Oil Falls for First Time in Six Days on Dollar, Supply Outlook
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Grant Smith
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for the first time in six days as the dollar strengthened and a workers' union at Total SA said it expects to settle a dispute with the company that has halted some refineries in France.
U.S. crude supplies probably grew for a fourth week and gasoline inventories may have risen from their highest in almost two years, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts before tomorrow's Energy Department report. A union representing Total SA workers said some of the company's French refineries have been halted by a strike. An official for the union said he was confident the dispute would be resolved today.
"It's only a matter of time before Total and the unions settle the strike and the market goes down again," said Andy Sommer, an analyst at Elektrizitaets-Gesellschaft in Dietikon, Switzerland. "Expectations of higher inventories are the main driving force. Refinery runs are still very, very low."
Crude oil for April delivery declined as much as $1.91, or 2.4 percent, to $78.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded for $78.65 a barrel at 12:01 p.m. London time. Futures reached a 15-month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11.
Yesterday, the March contract rose 0.4 percent to $80.16 before expiring at the close of floor trading.
The commodity fell as the dollar pared losses against the euro, making crude less appealing as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. currency was at $1.3573 per euro at 11:41 a.m. in London from $1.3596 yesterday in New York.
'Bearish Signal'
"Given the fundamentals, they don't justify crude prices above $80 a barrel," said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. "The trend in gasoline stocks has got to levels that are a lot higher in the U.S. than can be explained by a seasonal stock increase, and it probably is another bearish signal for the oil price."
U.S. crude supplies probably increased a fourth week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Commercially held stockpiles rose 1.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 19, from 334.5 million, based on the median of nine estimates. Gasoline inventories are expected to have added 1 million barrels from 232.1 million, the highest level since March 2008.
Total, Europe's largest refiner, has reported "sporadic" shortages at some gasoline filling stations in France. The strike started Feb. 17 in an effort to secure jobs for workers at an idled plant near Dunkirk.
South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest oil importer, consumed more fuel for a fourth month in January. The country used 69.3 million barrels of refined products last month, up 2.5 percent from a year earlier, data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp. showed.
Brent crude oil for April settlement was at $77.01 a barrel, down $1.60, at 12:01 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, after falling as much as $1.87, or 2.4 percent. The contract yesterday rose 0.5 percent to $78.61, the highest settlement since Jan. 12.
The eia/doe Crude and products inventory comes out today.
Crude Oil Is Little Changed in New York Before Inventory Report
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed, after falling before a U.S. government report that may show stockpiles of crude rose last week.
The Department of Energy's weekly report on inventories later today may show crude oil stockpiles rose for a fourth week, according to analyst estimates. U.S. crude inventories have risen about 2 percent since the beginning of this year.
"Fundamentals are still weak in terms of demand," said Kaha Kiknavelidze, a managing partner at London-based Rioni Capital Partners LLP, which specializes in emerging markets.
Crude oil for April delivery was at $78.97 a barrel, up 11 cents, at 1:30 p.m. London time after falling as much as 61 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $78.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The U.S. Department of Energy report, released in Washington at 10:30 a.m. local time today, will show crude stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels, according to the median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
U.S. gasoline stockpiles, which are up 5.6 percent so far this year, may also have risen again last week, according to the same survey. Gasoline stockpiles have risen the past two weeks.
A separate industry report yesterday from the American Petroleum Institute showed the biggest weekly decline in two months. Crude inventories fell 3.14 million barrels last week, the API said.
Brent crude for April settlement traded at $77.29 a barrel, up 4 cents, as of 1:30 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract earlier fell as low as $76.63 a barrel.
Total SA, Europe's largest refiner, expects to sign an agreement with unions today to end a weeklong strike that's hobbled operations at its refineries in France. Fuel shipments and the restart of refinery units will begin "very quickly," Christian Coste, a representative of the main Confederation Generale du Travail union, said by telephone.
Front Month April Crude is trading down $1.775 at $78.225, Gasoline at the pump should pull back some in the near term, and front month April Natural gas is trading down $0.02 at $4.835. Eia/doe gas storage report comes out today.
Crude Oil Futures Extend Declines After U.S. Economic Reports
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined, extending earlier losses after U.S. economic reports increased concerns that the economic recovery in the world's biggest energy- consuming nation may stall.
Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as $1.55, or 1.9 percent, to $78.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $78.81 a barrel at 1:44 p.m. London time.
Unemployment claims in the U.S. increased more than forecast last week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. January orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment, as reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department, fell short of estimates.
"There is a lack of conviction as to where the global economy is going," said Paul Harris, head of natural resources risk management at the Bank of Ireland in Dublin.
Oil closed up 1.5 percent yesterday at $80 a barrel after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. economy is in a "nascent" recovery that requires low interest rates to encourage demand from consumers and businesses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 91.75 points, or 0.9 percent, yesterday after Bernanke's address.
The U.S. Department of Energy released its weekly report on inventories yesterday. It showed that U.S. crude supplies gained 3.03 million barrels last week to 337.5 million, the highest since November. Stockpiles were forecast to increase 1.9 million barrels, in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Brent crude for April fell as much as $1.49, or 1.9 percent, to $76.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. It was at $76.93 a barrel at 1:44 p.m. local time.
Last Updated: February 25, 2010 08:58 EST
Front Month April Crude is trading at $81.85, up $0.35, crude has traded as hig as $82.40 in overnite trading. See the article below on crude oil price trend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aQC5MGEue6OU
April Front month Crude is trading at $80.60, down $1.275, April Natural gas is trading at $4.54, up $0.015.
Oil Declines on Forecast for U.S. Supply Gains, Dollar Rebound
For the complete article see below,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aK4YEbo9yHvc
Oil Little Changed Before Report Forecast to Show Supply Gains
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=ahY6VHuSl8MI
April Crude is trading flat this morning at $82.125.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 5, 2010
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.9 million barrels per day during the
week ending March 5, 149 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 80.7 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.8 million barrels
per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 3.7 million
barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down 744
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, 367 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)
last week averaged 806 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 130 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At
343.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of
the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components
inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.2
million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for
this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.5 million
barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.3 million barrels last week,
and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.4
million barrels per day, up by 3.8 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9 million
barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
down by 4.1 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 6.3
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
OPEC to Keep Quota Unchanged With Oil Above $80, Survey Shows
I think OPEC know that the world economy remains very delicate and that higher oil prices could and would throw us into a deeper recession/depression.
See the full article below.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=ayjghi3i4WGg
April Crude is trading flat to up a little this morning.
See below:
Saudi’s Naimi Sees No Need to Alter OPEC Production
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aL27uz2NUjCU
The crude and products inventory comes out tomorrow, if there is much of a draw, Gasoline will be moving up in the near term.
Oil Gains the Most in Four Weeks as Dollar Falls Against Euro
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aWL10d_thzZQ
April Crude is trading up $0.80 at $82.50. Our recovery efforts do not need higher energy costs.
Oil Rises After OPEC Says Demand Rising, U.S. Pledges Low Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a2dInmthhPnY
We are doing absolutely nothing in this country to improve the future energy supplies.
Oil Drops a Second Day as Dollar Rebound Cuts Investor Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aRrOAd6GhFtE
We're part of a hydrogen fueling station chain that is being built up and down the east coast. UD has hydrogen buses.
May-10 Crude is trading at $80.925, down $0.675, April-10 Natural Gas is trading at $4.115, up $0.035.
Oil Little Changed as Rising Equities Temper Supply Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aqF_3aeKQ2q0
May crude is trading at $80.60, down $1.30 , April Natural Gas is trading at $4.07, down $0.06.
Oil Falls for First Time in Three Days on U.S. Supplies, Dollar
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=allySoxJbnno
Thanks. We've been @ $2.69 here and I wondered if it would change.
Crude is trading at $80.675 up $0.675 and Natural gas is trading at $3.95, up $0.02, this morning.
Oil Rises as Greek Aid Eases Demand Concerns, Bolsters Hedging
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aKDu42n0VSLE
May Crude is trading at $82.45, up $0.275, May Natural Gas is trading at $3.92, up $0.005.
The article below supports that the US has no control over current crude prices. We could change that if we were drillingt our own reserves more.
Saudi Arabia’s Al-Naimi Awaits Recovery Before Boosting Output
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aaina4Efh9_0
May crude is trading at $83.075, up $0.65, May Natural Gas is trading $4.05, up $0.075. The President is to announce today proposals to allow Drilling offshore in the Atalntic and the Gulf of Mexico. Also, the Crude and Product inventories come out today.
Oil Rises Before Supply Data as Dollar Slips, Equities Advance
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=avm2Xv09OydQ
May crude is trading at $84.375, up $0.625, May Natural gas is trading at $3.885, up $0.015.
Crude Oil Rises to 17-Month High Amid Signs of Economic Growth
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aMzurG._0Rxg
Frank...Thank you so much for posting all this information. I wish I could post my reactions to these...But my momma taught me that it wasn't ladylike to use sailor talk... :o...!! lol
;D ;D ;D
May Crude is trading at $85.35, up $0.475, May Natural Gas is trading at $4.05, down $0.035.
Oil Surges to Highest Level in 17 Months on U.S. Job Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a0mexlzjQPtc
I thought this was relevant to my previous post.
Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi State Suppliers Raise Crude Oil Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a8HJPJg2uhZY
May Crude settled at $86.62, up $1.75 on the day June Crude traded above $87.00 during the session., May Natural Gas settled at $4.277, up $0.192 on the day.
May Crude is trading at $86.90 up $0.275, May Natural Gas is trading at $4.24 down $0.035.
Oil Little Changed Near 17-Month High Before U.S. Supply Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=amgaEgc2MFvQ
This will be interesting, a big part of what I do in marketing Oil and Gas for Independent operators, involves hedging prices. Any appreciable change in the Natural Gas Storage report can and will have a big impact on the futures price and Hedging. It can and will have an impact on your household energy costs including Electricity, Natural Gas and Propane.
U.S. Natural-Gas Data Overstated
The Energy Department is preparing to make sweeping revisions to its U.S. natural-gas production data after finding it has been overstating output, raising new questions about the government's collection of energy information.
The monthly gas-production data, known as the 914 report, is used by the industry and analysts as guide for everything from making capital investments to predicting future natural-gas prices and stock recommendations.
But the Energy Information Administration, the statistical unit of the Energy Department, has uncovered a fundamental problem in the way it collects the data from producers across the country—it surveys only large producers and extrapolates its findings across the industry. That means it doesn't reflect swings in production from hundreds of smaller producers.
The EIA plans to change its methodology this month, resulting in "significant" downward revisions in some areas, according to Gary Long, the acting director of the 914 form, who led the review.
The Wall Street Journal last month reported that the EIA also has key deficiencies in its collection of market-moving oil-inventory data that has caused swings in its survey.
The EIA has been overtaken by advances in technology, oil-shale finds and changes in the industry and has been less able to account for smaller companies that increase or decrease production. Some commodities analysts and gas producers, such as EOG Resources Inc., have long suspected that the EIA has overstated domestic natural-gas output—a factor they argue has helped push prices to seven-year lows in 2009.
"The model we have now overestimates" production, Mr. Long said in an interview. He said the review was prompted by the EIA noticing aberrations in some states. "We saw some numbers we didn't like in Texas; we thought they were a little too high," Mr. Long said.
Mr. Long said the EIA plans to change its methodology, though he didn't give details. The changes could lead to a downward revision of the nation's gas production. While overall there mightn't be a big change, Mr. Long said, some states will see "significant" revisions in production.
The EIA data showed that gas supply rose 4% in 2009, despite a 60% decline in onshore gas rigs. The conflicting numbers have perplexed analysts.
Analysts also point to the discrepancy between supply (how much gas is produced or imported) and demand (the amount that is stored or used). Those two figures should cancel each other. While there always is a margin of error, that margin has widened sharply in recent months.
In December, the agency reported total new gas supply at 87.8 billion cubic feet a day and total demand of 80 billion, leaving 7.8 billion cubic feet unaccounted for—a margin of error of 10%.
"It's getting ridiculously large," said Ben Dell, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. "When you have a 10% gap, that's somewhat making a mockery of the data."
Mr. Dell in January wrote a report raising questions about the mismatch. In that report, he focused on October numbers that showed a 12% margin of error.
"We think that most would agree that a 12% margin of error makes a data set tough to rely on, to say the least," Mr. Dell wrote in that report. Rather than gas supply being flat or slightly down as the data suggests, Mr. Dell wrote, he believes production is actually falling.
When that gradually becomes apparent, gas prices will be pushed "much higher," he says.
When told of the expected changes, Mr. Dell said: "It's good that they are actually paying some attention."
Mark Papa, chief executive of EOG Resources, a Texas-based gas producer, has long criticized the data, and sought a meeting with EIA officials because it is "a serious enough consistent data error we need to bring to their attention."
The "erroneously high" numbers have depressed prices, Mr. Papa said.
On April 30, the EIA is scheduled to release its natural-gas monthly report for February. In the report, the agency will use the new methods to estimate gas supply and revise its January numbers. The numbers for 2009 won't be updated until late fall.
In the upcoming report, the agency also will use more recent data—six to 18 months old—to estimate production by companies that aren't included in the survey. The current model uses data that are two to seven years old, the EIA says.
R12;Brian Baskin contributed to this article.
Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com
Anoither good reason to abolish the DOE. Shows how much
they don't know about markets and supply.
May crude is trading at $86.25, down $0.60, May Natural Gas is trading at $4.09, down $.005.
Crude Oil Falls From 18-Month High Before U.S. Supply Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=awjkkovgvk60
May Crude is trading at $85.10, down $0.775, May Natural Gas is Trading at $3.985, down $0,035.
Oil Falls a Second Day as U.S. Supplies Grow More Than Forecast
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a0jJ8_8yA_pg
Personally I would like to see Crude hold around $70.00, I think it would help the world recover from the current recession.
May crude is trading at $86.15, up $0.75 and May Natural Gas is trading at $3.96, up $0.05.
Oil Rises, Set for Second Weekly Gain, on Demand Recovery Hopes
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a_.hgj_U5gcI
I woud like that, also. I was trying to remember, without having to really go back and look, the last time it was $70.
Larryj
Larry, the last time it dipped to $70.00 or below was on December 14,2009
Yeah, but it seems like oil in Kansas is about $10 less. That being,
oil would have to be $80 for a $70 price here.
Red, you are not comparing the same or a common pricing. The Common pricing is NYMEX WTI Cushing, there are big differences for quality, location and inherent negatives such as H2S, metals, etc. The refining yield and products refined can and will vary considerably between crudes and refineries.