A Fast Read on Drug Cartels and the Border

[Warph]

Largely invisible to most Americans, just to the south, the security situation is worsening as a result of an intense conflict between the Mexican government and domestic drug cartels -- and even among the narco-gangs themselves.

Some observers have characterized the fighting in Mexico as a low-grade civil war. Worse yet, by many estimates, the violence is escalating -- and getting increasingly grisly. For instance, in January, Mexican authorities arrested a man accused of dissolving as many as 300 bodies in bubbling vats of acid for a Tijuana-based drug lord, earning him the nightmarish nickname "El Pozolero," after a local stew. The same week, Mexican prosecutors reported three severed heads found in an ice box. A headless body was also discovered in a canal in Ciudad Juarez, a town known as Mexico's deadliest -- just over the border from El Paso, Texas. Last year, the drug war in Mexico consumed nearly 6,000 lives -- double the number in 2007.

Drug trafficking organizations already control stretches of the Mexican side of the border, which according to some experts could bring the Mexican government to its knees in the coming years. Worse yet, it also has the potential of spilling north across the border -- in an ever bigger way.

One American congressman called it a "life-or-death struggle." Mexican President Felipe Calderon described drug violence as a threat to the Mexican state. Some have said Mexico is perched on the abyss. By all accounts, the federal government, politicians, the military and police are under the gun -- literally and figuratively -- by criminal gangs and drug lords, looking to deter or prevent interference in their shady dealings.

The public is ruthlessly intimidated by kidnappings and violence. Recent press reports have indicated an uptick in citizen vigilante groups to oppose the drug gangs, which could lead to paramilitarism and spiraling levels of bloodshed and instability. But some believe the majority of violence is among rival cartels, especially the four biggest -- Sinaloa, Gulf, Juarez and Tijuana -- in a deadly turf struggle, with the public and the government caught in the middle.

While the seven major cartels are present in most of Mexico's 31 states and one federal district, most of the violence takes place along the Mexican side of the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexican border. It's no surprise: The Mexican illegal drug business may be worth as much as $25 billion to $40 billion annually, shipping hundreds of tons of methamphetamine, marijuana, cocaine and heroin into the U.S.

Mexican cartels have been around for a while but have become increasingly prominent -- and powerful -- as drug routes north have shifted westward into Mexico, especially since the demise of the Colombian Cali and Medellin cartels in the 1990s. They come well-armed for their fights, bringing automatic weapons, powerful handguns, .50-caliber sniper rifles, grenades, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and even land mines to bear. Like a modern military, they wear night-vision goggles, move by helicopters and transport drugs in submersibles built in Latin American jungles. Their means of communications are impressive, too, incorporating Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP), satellite technology, cell phone text and encrypted messaging, according to the U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC).

Some of the cartels have "enforcer gangs," known as sicarios, which use extreme violence to protect their interests. In some cases, observers say these gangs are private armies in the cartels' employ, serving as hit squads. (Some, such as the Zetas, are former commandos.)

Adding to the challenge, Mexican gangs (many associated with the cartels) smuggle drugs, firearms and illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, especially through South Texas and California, according to the U.S. Justice Department.

Calderon, who took office in 2006, is game for a fight, including the deployment of 40,000 army troops, but he's up against rampant corruption that reaches deep into his anti-drug forces. Despite a new program to stamp it out called Operation Clean House, drug-related corruption seems rife among the security services, meaning missing drug seizures and cartel members eluding capture -- even escaping incarceration.

The Mexican judicial system is also a major problem in the fight against the drug scourge. It's plagued by bribery, reluctant judges, lack of investigative resources and overloaded courts.

The police are poorly paid, equipped and trained, leaving them no match for the well-armed narcotraficantes. It's dangerous work, too: Mexico's national police chief was assassinated last year.

Although perhaps overstating the case, some former U.S. government officials with knowledge of the situation have postulated that in as little five years, the cartels could, in essence, be running Mexico. Indeed, U.S. Joint Forces Command's "Joint Operating Environment 2008: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force" recently reported: "In particular, the growing assaults by the drug cartels and their thugs on the Mexican government over the past several years reminds one that an unstable Mexico could represent a homeland security problem of immense proportions."

Unfortunately, we're entangled in Mexico's lurch toward instability. According to the NDIC, Mexican drug traffickers are "the most pervasive organizational threat to the United States. They are active in every region of the country and dominate the illicit drug trade in every area except the Northeast."

Drug use in the U.S. hasn't declined appreciably in recent years, according to experts, despite the federal government spending nearly $15 billion annually on prevention, interdiction and rehabilitation. Even more brazen, Mexican drug gangs are using U.S. public lands in the West to cultivate marijuana. They've also shifted methamphetamine operations from Mexico to California, according to the U.S. Justice Department.

Lots of weapons in Mexico come from this side of the border; indeed, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) asserts a majority of the cartels' weapons come from the U.S., especially via gang networks operating in the Southwest. Mexico City has also expressed concerns to Washington about precursor chemicals coming in from the U.S. that are then used by the cartels in the production of narcotics.

Another problem, according to experts, is that little inspection is done on the 100 million vehicles and trucks entering or leaving Mexico annually at 25 crossing points, leading to plenty of finger-pointing on both sides.

As a result, popular support for Calderon's fight against the cartels has waned; because of the widespread violence, many Mexicans are for throwing in the towel, saying drugs are an American problem. But that clearly wouldn't be good for either of us. If Mexico, a country of 110 million people, becomes even a near narcostate, the effect on the U.S. -- make that the Western Hemisphere -- is almost incalculable.

If the cartels were to seize tracts of Mexican territory, it could lead to the establishment of lawless, ungoverned spaces, which are favored by bad actors such as terrorists. (Think: Pakistan's tribal areas -- home to al-Qaida and the Taliban.) Terrorists could certainly exploit successful drug smuggling routes to bring people and explosives or even weapons of mass destruction across the border into the U.S.

Beyond all this, there's a lot more at stake for American interests in Mexico, the third-most populous country in this hemisphere (after the U.S. and Brazil). Mexico has the world's 13th-largest economy -- with significant American investment. It's our second-largest trading partner. Mexico is our third-largest oil supplier and the world's eighth-largest exporter. It's got lots of natural gas, too.

A number of American officials have said that no country is more important to the U.S. than Mexico. Considering its proximity, that's arguably correct. So what can or should be done?

Most security analysts agree that Mexico must take the lead against this very capable, resourceful foe. Yet it's not likely that Mexico City could successfully go it alone, despite a nearly 30 percent increase in security spending in 2007.

As usual, while Washington concedes the last thing we need is a narcostate in Mexico in the coming decades, not everyone agrees how to move forward with Mexico City.

One way is through programs such as the Mérida Law Enforcement Initiative, a U.S.-assisted, Mexican-Central American-Caribbean counterdrug program, launched last year. The Mérida Initiative, which was barely passed by Congress because of human rights concerns, is considered a new paradigm for joint cooperation between Mexico and the U.S. It recalls the successful "Plan Colombia," initiated in 2000 between Washington and Bogotá which led to the demise of the FARC narco-terrorist group. But it doesn't put U.S. boots on the ground in Mexico.

While the program is a step in the right direction, the plan isn't without critics. Some complain the 30-plus Mérida programs are too long on "software" (e.g., command and control, intelligence collection gear) and too short on "hardware" (planes and helicopters) to meet immediate needs.

Others criticize the plan because it doesn't sufficiently address the problems of poverty, corruption and judicial reform that are critical to confronting the challenge in a comprehensive manner. Time is of the essence.

The situation is increasingly grave with an average of 15 people being killed in narcotics-related violence in Mexico every day. Programs such as Mérida must be funded, indeed, bolstered, if we're to stem a rising tide of trouble across the border.

[Warph]

A few ways that the United States can combat the bloodshed and secure the homeland.

The situation in Mexico and its impact on the United States is finally getting the attention it deserves.

This week Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads down to Mexico City and will be meeting with President Felipe Calderon on Wednesday--the same day that the Senate Homeland Security Committee will be hearing from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on the situation there. After her testimony, Napolitano will head down to Mexico for further discussions, as will Attorney General Eric Holder.

And then, on April 16 and 17 President Obama will make the pilgrimage. 

This is not just about President Calderon's war with the drug cartels. It's also about trade relations, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and economic issues.

These trips represent welcome attention to America's southern neighbor and concern with a dangerous situation that directly affects the safety and security of the United States homeland.

It's worth contrasting the new attention with the situation last fall when Senior Reporter Anthony Kimery went to the border. At that time, no one in the general US media was covering Mexico in any systematic and sustained way and all eyes were on the economy and the election. Those were important stories, of course, but in the realm of homeland security, Mexico was also critical.

The trips to Mexico will not only be welcome in discussing US-Mexican differences but will also show US support for President Calderon. Hopefully that will have the effect of boosting his position against the cartels, improve Mexican morale and improve bilateral relations.

There are a few measures that the United States--and American citizens--can take to stabilize Mexico, improve the situation and protect US homeland security. 

Gunrunning

Mexican experts have been pointing out the extent of the US weapons trade to Mexico, which is serving to arm the narco-cartels that are destabilizing the country. There are different estimates of the volume of the traffic, with one Mexican analyst estimating 2,000 guns going south per day. US officials dispute that and, while not providing a counter-estimate, maintain that it is probably much lower. Nonetheless any guns going south are too many.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and the Customs and Border Protection directorate of the Department of Homeland Security are both actively interdicting firearms headed toward Mexico. 

But this is one of the few areas where individual citizens can make a difference by reporting gun smuggling. There is also one private sector organization in particular that's in a position to make a significant contribution--the National Rifle Association (NRA).

The NRA claims it is a patriotic organization standing up for American values; now it's time to prove it by mobilizing its members to cooperate with US authorities and stop the destabilization of America's neighbor. The NRA is on the alert for any hint of legislation that it feels might impinge on gun ownership--how about being on the alert for any actions that impinge on US homeland security? It's time for the NRA to prove that it's as patriotic as it says it is and make a real contribtion to the country's security by calling on its members to cooperate with US authorities and report any gun sales intended for Mexican narco-terrorists.

The Merida initiative

The administration of President George W. Bush recognized the danger of the Mexican narco-cartels and launched the Merida Initiative, a comprehensive aid package designed to assist the Mexican and other South American governments against the drug trade. Unfortunately, the first chunk of aid, $450 million this year, was trimmed by Congress to $300 million.

Mexico needs more help, not less, and it's in the direct interest of the United States to assist. That cut should be restored either in the original legislation or made up in other appropriations.

NAFTA, trucks and detection

Under NAFTA, Mexican trucks are to be allowed to haul their freight into the United States. Since NAFTA was ratified in 1994 this has been resisted by labor unions, truckers, environmentalists and safety activists, although a small pilot program was established to test the traffic. However, Congress shut down the pilot program and the Mexican government has slapped retaliatory tariffs on an array of American goods--which they are perfectly entitled to do under the terms of the agreement.

No doubt these trade issues will be discussed by the US officials going to Mexico. However, beyond trade, the truck issue has a security dimension and it's not hard to see what it is: No doubt traffickers will be seeking every possible way to smuggle contraband into the United States in those trucks if they're allowed to use US roads.

That the trucks will eventually roll seems very likely--the United States is not about to scrap NAFTA and being proponents of free trade rather than protectionism especially in light of the current economic situation, American officials will have to ultimately implement the agreement in all its aspects.

But the United States still has to inspect the cargo coming through its borders. The only answer to doing this securely is to deploy even more technology at border crossings, particularly new forms of detection and X-rays. It's the only way to meeting US obligations under NAFTA, maintaining the pace of commerce and still securing the homeland.

Presidents Obama and Calderon have much to discuss as do their Cabinet secretaries. But they have to resolve these issues in a cooperative spirit. Both their homelands are at stake.

[sixdogsmom]

Two good posts Warph, thanks!

[Tobina+1]

I have a cousin who married a Native American Indian who was involved in a highly-trained Indian tracking anti-drug group in Arizona (I can't remember the name... something Wolf maybe).  Their specific duties were to track drug running along the border in that state.  She showed us pictures of the mountains of drugs they confiscated over the years!  Unfortunately, her husband's involvement in the group didn't come without a price.  Many times they had "hits" out on the families of these Indian guys; my cousin had unlisted numbers and very scary guard dogs.  Her husband was in an accident about 3 years ago that has left him unable to work and has had many surgeries to repair his multiple broken bones.  He was in a car chase and they ran him off the road into a ravine at a very high rate of speed.  Not but 1-2 years before then, he had a good friend killed in much the same way.  I'm amazed at these guys and the work they do.

It is very scary to understand how much of a huge business this is, and how powerless we are to stop it.  I'm reminded of an episode of NUMB3RS (on CBS) a few weeks ago where the smart Epps brother was trying to mathmatically figure out a way to keep the supply/demand low on a certain new drug.  I was thinking the opposite... if the market is flooded with drugs, the prices will go down, and it's a much less profitable business to be in.  Ha, NO, I'm not for legalizing drugs, but it is an interesting thought on how to decrease the price on the drugs to make them less desireable to produce and sell.

[Varmit]

I gotta tell ya, this whole thing really pisses me off.  Excuse my language, but with the most powerful, most technologically advanced, best trained military in the world, it seems to me that if the US gov't really wanted to combat the drug issue, it wouldn't be a problem.  If they wanted to deal with the cartels bringing that stuff in to this country then they would make the punishment fit the crime.  For example, how about manatory death sentence.  And why not, cartels as  well as the scum that smuggle that crap know full well that they are peddling death.  True most that use that stuff know that as well. But I for one am sick and tired of hearing drug addicts complain that they use it to deal with their problems, knowing full well it doesn't solve a thing.  Frankly, if you are dumb enough to think that snorting something up your nose, shooting it up your veins, or smoking it will ease your problems, you deserve everything you get, and I have no sympathy for you.  However, when pushers target children who don't know any better, there is only one punishment fit to deal out.  A short drop and a sudden stop.  I see nothing wrong with Border patrol taking these scum that are caught with drugs out into the desert and putting them down, hard and final. 

If my rant has offended, or my language seems harsh, I offer no apologies, only the frustration of an American tired of seeing his country flushed down the drain by pantywaisted politicans too afraid to deal with the problem. 

[sixdogsmom]

I must say that I agree with you Varmit. The drug culture has been the ruination of this country.

[Diane Amberg]

I agree with all of you on this issue, but I'm not sure if we can ever stop it. There are very vicious drug cells hidden in the Mexican communities all over this country.  They are extremely well organized, have plenty of money and will take out you and your family, especially if someone has family in Mexico. You talk, you die. People disappear never to be seen again. I'm much more afraid of these people than I am of Muslim terrorists. These folks are human Pitbulls ( my apologies to Pitbulls) and can hide in plain sight. Military intervention may become necessary, sooner rather than later.   

[frawin]

I agree with all of you on this issue, but I'm not sure if we can ever stop it. There are very vicious drug cells hidden in the Mexican communities all over this country.  They are extremely well organized, have plenty of money and will take out you and your family, especially if someone has family in Mexico. You talk, you die. People disappear never to be seen again. I'm much more afraid of these people than I am of Muslim terrorists. These folks are human Pitbulls ( my apologies to Pitbulls) and can hide in plain sight. Military intervention may become necessary, sooner rather than later.   

Diane, you have just stated another great reason why any and all law abiding citizens should be allowed to keep their guns, and that would certainly include Automatic, semi-Automatic, 20 round clips etc. If we give up our guns we will really be run over by the drug traffikers.

[Diane Amberg]

I am not a gun control advocate, but it breaks my heart when the drug dealers in Philly or Wilmington shoot it out and kill innocent people, especially kids, who wouldn't have had guns anyway and were in the wrong place at the wrong time, such as in the back seat of a passing car. It seems like rarely does the right person have a gun at the ready, at the right time and place to shoot the bad guy and make any impression on the bad element. Philly police are being killed at an alarming rate and they are armed all the time. I don't know what the answer is.

[frawin]

Diane, what would the results be if you made it illegal for anyone in that state to own a gun. Do you think that would reduce the Cartel's and/or drug gangs  activities?? I wish one person could give a good reason how taking guns away from law abiding citizens will result in a major reduction of  crimes against the innocent.