Better Fill up today

[DanCookson]

I just checked the NYMEX and it appears everything is selling down about $3.70 to $127 out for the next 8 months.  Speculators bailing out is my hope.  I agree, hopefully we will see limited problems with the hurricane and no saber rattling from the Middle East.  If so, we might get some major relief in the coming weeks.

That is unless the speculators don't scoop the profits and jump back in at a bottom trough and start running up contracts.

[frawin]

I was travelling all day and just got to where I could post. September 08 Crude oil closed down at $127.95 down $3.09 and August 08 Natural Gas closed at $10.067, down $0.443. I noticed gasoline was $3.76 when I went thru Ponca City. Dan I think the speculators are getting nervous, they could end up with Pelosi and company and the penalty might be having to spend the day with that idiot. That should scare them in to being more careful buying long.

[DanCookson]

Frank, Honestly that would be worse than losing money

[frawin]

September 08 Crude is trading off at $126.175 , down $2.245, Aug 08 Natural Gas is trading off at $9.96 off $0.107.

[frawin]

Below is the EIA weekly Crude Oil and Products inventory report. It is somewhat bearish but not as much as I had hoped for. I would like to see a build in crude oil inventories, not just in products. NYMEX Crude is still trading off but not as much as I would like to see.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 18, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.1 million barrels per day during the
week ending July 18, down 355 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels
per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week, down 985
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged nearly 10.1 million barrels per day, 144 thousand
barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 102
thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At
295.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased
by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories  and gasoline blending
components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 2.4 million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million
barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week,and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3
million barrels per day, down by 2.1 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, down by 2.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, up by 3.6 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 2.5
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.

The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the
most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data. 



Table 1.  U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, 4 Weeks Ending 07/18/2008
                                                                     Cumulative
                                    Four Week Averages             Daily Averages
Petroleum Supply                          Ending            %          199 Days      %
(Thousand Barrels per Day)           07/18/08  07/18/07    Change     2008    2007    Chg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (1)                  5,097     5,128      -0.6   5,120   5,181    -1.2
Net Imports (Incl SPR) (2)              10,051     9,897       1.6   9,789   9,981    -1.9
   Gross Imports (Excl SPR)             10,078     9,934       1.4   9,811  10,010    -2.0
   SPR Imports                               0         0       --        0       0     --
   Exports                                  27        37     -27.0      22      29   -24.1
SPR Stocks W/D or Added                    -48         0       --      -47      -8     --
Other Stocks W/D or Added                  230       235       --      -18    -170     --
Product Supplied and Losses                  0         0       --        0       0     --
Unaccounted-for Crude Oil (3)               41       237       --       58      63     --

Crude Oil Input to Refineries           15,370    15,497      -0.8  14,902  15,047    -1.

[frawin]

I thought this was an interesting article, I have said for a long time that America was the most Oil wasteful Nation on earth by far. Queen Pelosi wants to block drilling from our largest reserves to make us cut down because of the higher prices that will come. I would like to see some preliminary studies and testing done now so we can have a better idea of what we are talking about as to the amount of reserves and the potential for the future. By refusing to bring the issue to a vote, Queen Pelosi is making the choice by herself. Our long term efforts to solve our energy problems are being put on hold or at least in slow motion due to childish partisan politics. If we don't get started on additional production, massive research for alternative energy, this Nation faces grave circumstances. In regard to energy supply now, our fate is in the hands of our enemies in the Muslim World.
America's need for oil like an 'addiction,' expert says Story Highlights
Expert sees parallels in America's dependence on oil and addiction

American society has "rewired" itself to cheap, plentiful oil, he says

Changing behavior may be painful, like an addict weaning himself off drugs

Additional drilling similar to a nicotine patch for a smoker, expert says

Next Article in U.S. »



By Elaine Quijano
CNN White House Correspondent
     
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- You've no doubt heard the language by now -- that Americans are plagued by an oil addiction.


More oil drilling could act like a nicotine patch for smokers, an addiction expert says.

In his 2006 State of the Union address, President Bush used the analogy while pushing for more research into alternative energy sources, saying, "Here we have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil."

But is U.S. dependence on oil a true "addiction"?

Jack Henningfield, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University who has extensively studied addictions, said there are parallels.

"Oil addiction is not an addiction in the medical sense, like a drug addiction or a tobacco addiction," Henningfield said. "But it is an addiction in the sense that powerful behaviors are involved. They're difficult to change, [and] it can be agonizing for people to change."

Henningfield said when it comes to substance addiction, the brain rewires itself to depend on the chemical.

Similarly, in the case of oil, Henningfield noted, "Our nation has been rewired. Our national infrastructure has been wired by cheap plentiful oil."

So, how does Bush's proposal for more oil drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge fit in to the science of addiction?

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Henningfield said the idea is similar to a smoker using a nicotine patch and said based on addiction studies, the notion has merit. "We have to give people ... some kind of aid to just function and just get along," Henningfield said.

At the same time, he warned those aids run the risk of making people "forget that we need long-term solutions."

Democrats argue Bush's proposal would only enable America's oil addiction.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said recently, "Foreign oil, the president said we were addicted to it. And what does he want to do? He wants to reinforce the addiction."

Pelosi has said she will not schedule votes in the House of Representatives to lift the bans on offshore drilling and oil exploration in ANWR.

Henningfield said that's why any strategy to break an addiction must have a long-term goal. Ultimately, he said, kicking any habit can boil down to economics, as smoking studies have shown.

"Money talks for addictions. Money gets people's attention. And the most important single driver to get people to quit smoking is the rising cost of cigarettes," Henningfield said. "So, with addictions -- whether it's cocaine, nicotine or oil -- money talks."

All About Energy Policy • Oil Production and Refining • Addiction and Recovery

 

[frawin]

September Crude Closed at $124.44, down $3.98, the outer months were off $4.00 plus, August Natural Gas settled at $9.788, down $0.279, the outer months were down $0.40 plus. Opec and the Muslim world does not want us to develop alternate energy, total electric cars and they sure don't want us to drill in the  OCS, ANWR or the Oil Shale in the Rockies. To big of a dip in the price is just going to put us further behind and more dependent on foreign oil.

[Teresa]

Retirement plans compared...


If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would Now
be worth $49.00.

With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000.

With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left.

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have
$49.00 left.

If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left.

But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank All
the beer, then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment advise is to drink
Heavily and recycle.

This is called the 401-Keg Plan.


(((sorry....... I just HAD to))))

[Jo McDonald]

Dan -- the picture of you and "your ladies" is wonderful,
  Not that I have any special interest, of course.     

[frawin]

Front Month Crude is trading  at $125.25 up $0.81, and Front Month Natural Gas is trading at $9.71 down $0.078. Natural Gas Storage numbers come out today and it will be interesting to see what the build is.