Better Fill up today

[frawin]

This forecast will put some upward pressure on the Fuel Oil, Natural Gas and Crude Oil Market.

U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2)




By Todd Zeranski and Erik Schatzker

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

"Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard," Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. "About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It's pretty good odds."

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

"It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade," Rogers said.

U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, are at their highest since January 1983, the U.S. Energy Department said Sept. 23. Stockpiles of 170.8 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18 are 28 percent above the five-year average.

Heating oil for October delivery rose 1.38 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $1.6909 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


Last Updated: September 28, 2009 15:52 EDT

[frawin]

November-09 Crude is trading at $66.65, down $0.19, November-09 Natural Gas is trading at $4.745, down $0.085.

[frawin]

Crude Declines on Forecast of Growing U.S. Oil, Fuel Supplies
U.S. Natural Gas Imports & Exports: 2008



Crude Declines on Forecast of Growing U.S. Oil, Fuel Supplies
By Grant Smith and Alexander Kwiatkowski

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell before a report forecast to show that U.S. supplies of crude and refined oil products accumulated because of a sluggish economic recovery.

An Energy Department report due tomorrow will probably show crude stockpiles rose by 1 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also increased, the survey said. Oil prices have gained 50 percent this year as a weaker dollar boosts the appeal of crude as a currency hedge. "With energy fundamentals still uninspiring, prices should remain confined to the $65-$75 trading range for some time to come," said Edward Meir, an analyst with MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut. "The dollar's decline seems to have stalled" and "that could remove some of the upside momentum." Crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as 87 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $65.97 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $66.11 at 1:43 p.m. in London. Yesterday, the contract rose 82 cents, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $66.84 a barrel. The December contract is about 35 cents a barrel more expensive than November's. The difference between the two front- month contracts has shrunk from more than $2 a barrel in August in tandem with U.S. crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point.

Cold Winter

The U.S. northeast, the country's largest market for heating oil, may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group, in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. Refineries in the U.S. operated at 85.3 percent of capacity last week, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous week, according to the median of survey responses. "Refineries are trying to support the market. Run rates are being decreased," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. "Demand is very bad, but with refineries limiting supply, the market will be well balanced."

The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release its own inventories data in Washington today.

Brent crude oil for November settlement traded at $64.79 a barrel, down 46 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1:42 p.m. in London. Yesterday, the contract gained 43 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $65.54 a barrel.

Missile Tests

Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, yesterday carried out missile tests before a scheduled meeting with U.S. and European officials over a previously secret nuclear site.

President Barack Obama and the leaders of the U.K. and France said Sept. 25 Iran is secretly building a second plant for enriching uranium, in violation of the nuclear non- proliferation treaty.

"With the spare capacity we've got in the oil market at the moment, it's obviously not going to be the same reaction we would have got 18 months ago," said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney.

The permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- the U.S., China, France, Russia and the U.K. -- will meet Iranian officials on Oct. 1 in Geneva. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any link between the missile tests and the Geneva talks.

U.S. Natural Gas Imports & Exports: 2008 
This report provides an overview of U.S. international natural gas trade in 2008. Natural gas import and export data, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) data, are provided through the year 2008 

2008 Overview 


In 2008, increased U.S. natural gas production led to reduced demand for natural gas imports. The drop in total imports occurred despite a 2007-to-2008 increase in domestic consumption—a factor that typically requires higher levels of imports to meet consumer demand. Total exports to Mexico and Canada via pipeline and Japan via LNG tanker were higher in 2008. Consequently, net imports to the United States fell more than 20 percent from 2007 totals to the lowest level since 1997. The decline in U.S. natural gas imports had a larger impact on LNG imports than Canadian pipeline imports. Given the ease of transporting gas to alternative markets, some LNG that historically landed in the United States went elsewhere in 2008.
2008 Highlights 



With the large drop in total imports, net imports only accounted for around 13 percent of U.S. consumption in 2008. In recent years, net imports have represented around 16 percent of domestic consumption.


Consistent with domestically produced natural gas traded in the U.S. marketplace, annual import and export prices were both about 25 percent higher in 2008. Monthly prices peaked in July. A run-up on natural gas prices began in the spring before a weakened economy drove prices below 2007 levels by the end of the year.


In 2008 there was a 9 percent decrease in net imports from Canada. Despite this decrease Canadian pipeline imports continued to account for the vast majority of U.S. natural gas imports. In 2008 Canadian imports accounted for 90 percent of total U.S. natural gas imports.


Net exports via pipeline to Mexico were up 35 percent from 2007. The 2008 total is the third highest volume on record. Only in 2003 and 2004 were net Mexican exports higher.


Net LNG imports were down 58 percent from the record totals of 2007. Although LNG makes up a small percentage of the total U.S. imports, that share fell from 17 percent in 2007 to 9 percent this year.


Even with lower levels of LNG imports, 2008 saw three new LNG facilities come on line. The three new facilities were Sabine Pass in Louisiana, Freeport LNG in Texas, and Northeast Gateway offshore of Massachusetts. As the Gulf of Mexico terminal didn't receive any deliveries in 2008, a total of seven LNG terminals supplied natural gas to U.S. markets.


For the first time, the United States imported a small proportion of LNG from Norway in 2008. However, the number of countries supplying LNG to the United States declined with imports ceasing from Algeria and Equatorial Guinea. In 2008 LNG exports went primarily to Japan, after a small amount went to Russia in 2007.

[frawin]

The markets were pretty quiet today with November Crude settling at $66.71, down $0.13 on the day and Natural Gas settling at $4.875, up $0.045 on the day.

[frawin]

November Crude is trading at $67.875, up $1.165, November Natural Gas is trading at $4.88, up $0.005.

[frawin]

Crude Oil Rises as Growth in China, Japan Buoys Demand Outlook


By Grant Smith

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $67 a barrel in New York as manufacturing expanded in China and Japan, buoying hopes for a rebound in fuel demand.

Oil is nonetheless heading for its first quarterly decline this year amid swelling fuel inventories in the U.S. The Energy Department will probably report that supplies of crude and fuel increased last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Chinese manufacturing rose for a sixth month in September and Japanese industrial output climbed for a sixth time in August.

R20;Emerging markets have definitely been driving the demand recovery," said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo. "Industrial production has increased. We will see a gradual improvement in the economy, but prices have got ahead of the physical fundamentals."

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as $1.28, or 1.9 percent, to $67.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $67.89 a barrel at 11:14 a.m. London time.

Oil is poised for a 2.9 percent decline for the three months ending today, the first drop in three quarters.

Chinese manufacturing expanded on government stimulus spending and record bank lending, a purchasing managers' index released by HSBC Holdings Plc showed. The index dropped to a seasonally adjusted 55 from 55.1 in August, HSBC said today. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

Japanese factory output rose 1.8 percent last month after climbing 2.1 percent in July, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo, as emergency spending by governments worldwide rekindled global trade.

U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude inventories rose to 340 million barrels last week, according to an American Petroleum Institute report yesterday. Gasoline supplies decreased 1.72 million barrels to 212.5 million, it said.

R20;There is still this feeling that the worst is over so eventually the economy is going to pull us out of this," said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. "The fundamentals don't look good but we'll see fund buying interest at this level."

A weekly Energy Department report scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. in Washington will probably show crude stockpiles rose 2 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also increased, the survey showed.

Consumer Confidence

Gasoline inventories probably gained 1 million barrels from 213.1 million the week before, according to the responses. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, likely increased 1.2 million barrels from a 26- year high of 170.8 million the prior week.

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in September as a rising unemployment rate weighed on households, the New York-based Conference Board said yesterday. The group's confidence measures of present conditions and its expectations for six months from now declined.

Brent crude oil for November settlement rose as much as $1.18, or 1.8 percent, to $66.67 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $66.60 at 11:14 a.m. local time.

[frawin]

November Crude settled at $70.61, up $3.90 on the day, November-09 Natural Gas settled at $4.841, down $0.034 on the day.

Our local pump price is $2.00 as the lowest and most at $2.01, but I would say it is going up, Dale you better fill up.

[Dee Gee]

That is what I'm thinking, our local price is down to 2.39.  My pickup needs fuel and we need 15 gallons of gas for the lawn mowers.

[Diane Amberg]

We saw some today for $2.23, but of course I filled up LAST week!

[frawin]

November Crude is trading at $69.70, down $0.91, November Natural Gas is trading at $4.685, down $0.156.
Our neighborhood station is at $1.99 on regular this morning. Given yesterday's eia/doe inventory report, crude should go down more.
The Natural Gas Storage report comes out today.