Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Oil Set for Weekly Gain, Helped by Weak Dollar, Chinese Demand


By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Oil is poised for its first weekly gain in three weeks after the dollar fell to a nine-month low and industrial production in China, the world's second-biggest energy user, increased at a faster pace than forecast.

Oil, which rose each day earlier this week, was little changed in New York today as the dollar stabilized after its longest losing streak since March. China's factory output gained, and net oil imports in August rose to the second-highest level on record. U.S. crude supplies fell 5.91 million barrels to 337.5 million last week, the lowest level since mid-January.

"The dollar is clearly the main driver at the moment," said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo. "The stock market was until a couple of weeks ago, and now the dollar has taken over. China has been the first to start the drive for commodities again."

Crude oil for October delivery traded at $71.78 a barrel, down 16 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:36 a.m. in London. It earlier rose as much as 44 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $72.38 a barrel. Futures have gained 5.5 percent this week and 61 percent in 2009.

The dollar pared it losses after a five-day decline against the euro. The U.S. currency traded at $1.4586 at 10:20 a.m. in London from $1.4582 yesterday. The euro has gained 4 percent against the dollar so far this year.

Output at China's factories increased 12.3 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing. That exceeded the 11.8 percent growth forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Economic Recovery

China's net crude oil imports increased 18 percent last month to 17.92 million metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said. That's the most since the record 19.2 million tons in July, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Power generation in the country rose to a record after the domestic economic recovery spurred demand from businesses and factories. Output increased for a third month, climbing 9.3 percent, the statistics bureau said.

Oil futures may fall next week as fuel stockpiles rise, a Bloomberg survey showed. Fourteen of 31 analysts surveyed, or 45 percent, predicted oil will fall through Sept. 18. Ten respondents, or 32 percent, forecast the market will rise and seven said prices will be little changed. Last week, 50 percent of analysts said oil would fall.

Lower Stockpiles

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil fell 5.91 million barrels to 337.5 million last week, the lowest level since mid-January, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. Supplies were estimated to decline 1.85 million barrels, according to the median of 16 responses from analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

"Oil stocks are still very high, but improving demand amid continued supply tightness should accelerate the pace of erosion of the inventory overhang, lending support to prices," analysts at Barclays Capital, led by Gayle Berry, said in a report.

Gasoline inventories rose 2.07 million barrels to 207.2 million, the first gain in seven weeks, the department said. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, climbed 1.99 million barrels to 165.6 million, the highest since January 1983.

Brent crude oil for October settlement traded at $69.85 a barrel, down 1 cent, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday, the contract settled 3 cents higher at $69.86.

-- With assistance from Ann Koh in Singapore. Editors: John Buckley, Rob Verdonck


Last Updated: September 11, 2009 05:50 EDT

[frawin]

Oil falls for second day on doubts over pace of demand recovery

September 14, 2009 -



Oil fell for a second day as US fuel stockpiles gained and crude's rally to more than $US72 a barrel last week outpaced the recovery in the global economy.

Oil fell below $US69 a barrel before a report tomorrow in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, which may show retail spending, excluding gasoline and autos, barely changed in August, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Oil dropped the most in two weeks September 11, ending a four-day climb.

"WeR17;re still waiting to see if the fundamentals can catch up with the sentiment in the oil market," said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets in Sydney. "There definitely seems to be a bit of significant resistance being encountered once we get into the $(US)70s."

Crude oil for October delivery dropped as much as $US1.24, or 1.8 per cent, to $US68.05 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $US68.14 this morning in Singapore.

The contract fell 3.7 per cent to $US69.29 a barrel on September 11. Prices reached $US72.90 that day, the highest intraday price since August 31.

US oil inventories are more than 13 per cent higher than a year ago, the Energy Department said in a weekly report on September 10. Distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, are at their highest since 1983.

 

[frawin]

Crude was down again today, with October settling at $68.86, down $0.43 on the day. Natural Gas was a different story with October settling at $3.297, up $0.337 on the day,  (10% is a big move for Natural Gas).

[frawin]

Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days as Dollar Weakens



By Grant Smith

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as the dollar traded near its lowest level against the euro in a year, spurring demand for crude as an inflation hedge.

The U.S. Energy Department will probably say tomorrow that supplies of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, rose for a fourth week from their highest level since 1983, according to a Bloomberg News survey. U.S. crude oil inventories are likely to have fallen last week as refineries bought fewer cargoes before idling plants for upgrades and repairs.

"The U.S. currency continues to set the trend for oil in the absence of any major fundamental developments," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London. "We'll probably see more sideways trading ahead of the inventory numbers."

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 56 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $69.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded for $69.17 a barrel as of 12:19 p.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract fell to $68.86, the lowest settlement since Sept. 4. Futures have gained 55 percent this year.

Fuel stockpiles in the world's biggest energy users, including the U.S. and Japan, have risen as the global recession crimped demand. Refiners are cutting output to boost processing profit as consumption slows with the end of the peak U.S. driving period last week.

"As soon as the gasoline demand season is over, we should be looking at higher inventories," said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo. "That's quite a bearish factor for the crude oil market."

Rising Stockpiles

Crude oil tumbled to $32.40 a barrel in December, the lowest in more than four years, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15, 2008, triggered a global financial crisis that sapped energy demand.

"In the sense that the collapse of Lehman precipitated a further deepening of the financial crisis, it has certainly affected oil pricing," said Victor Shum, a senior principal at Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "And the collapse also affected trading at other banks."

U.S. stockpiles of distillate may have increased 1.5 million barrels from 165.6 million in the week to Sept. 11, according to the median of 11 estimates from analysts.

Gasoline inventories probably climbed 700,000 barrels from 207.2 million previously, the survey showed. Refineries are expected to have operated at 86.7 percent of capacity last week, a drop of 0.5 percentage point. Commercially held U.S. crude oil inventories declined 2.5 million barrels from 337.5 million, according to the median of survey responses.

Refinery Shutdowns

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report in Washington tomorrow. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute will put out its own data later today.

"The gasoline season is over and refineries are ramping up maintenance schedules," Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said in a note. "As such, demand for crude oil is about to dip. If we are ever going to get a correction lower in oil, the time is now."

The main militant group in Nigeria said it will end its 60- day cease-fire today as it threatened to resume sabotage attacks "with utmost zeal."

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, which seeks more local control of the delta's oil wealth, declared a unilateral cease-fire July 15 after the government freed its leader, Henry Okah, who was on trial for treason. MEND rejected a government amnesty program, saying it failed to address its political demands.

Brent Stable

MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo said in an e-mail he wouldn't "speculate" when attacks may resume. Armed attacks targeting the oil industry have cut more than 20 percent of Nigeria's oil exports since 2006 and deterred new investments. The country vies with Angola as Africa's top oil producer and is the fifth- largest source of U.S. oil imports.

Brent crude oil for October settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange traded at $67.42 a barrel, down 2 cents, at 12:20 p.m. in London. Yesterday, it fell 0.4 percent to settle at $68.37.

The October contract expires today. The more active November future was at $68.34 a barrel, down 3 cents.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries releases its month report on global oil markets later today.


Last Updated: September 15, 2009 07:23 EDT

[frawin]

October Crude settled at $70.93, up $2.07 on the day, October Natural Gas settled at $3.32, up $0.023 on the day.

[frawin]

Oil Little Changed Before U.S. Energy Report as Dollar Declines



By Grant Smith

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Oil was little changed near $71 a barrel before a weekly government report that may show U.S. supplies of distillate fuel rose for a fourth week.

The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that distillate inventories in the U.S., rose to a 26-year high. A report later today from the U.S. Energy Department may also show stockpiles of the fuel increased, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Oil pared larger losses earlier in the day as the dollar dropped to the weakest level this year against the euro, spurring interest in commodities as an inflation hedge.

"Inventories of distillates are at very high levels, and this could dampen demand for crude oil from refineries in the U.S.," said Eliane Tanner, a commodity strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. "Prices are going to stay in a consolidation phase, with the range between $68 and $74.50 holding quite firmly."

Crude oil for October delivery was at $70.77 a barrel, down 16 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:45 a.m. London time. The contract earlier fell 1.1 percent. Oil has gained 58 percent this year.

"When the API numbers came out, the market just dumped, so it's pretty significant. But the big number is still the EIA," the Energy Information Administration, said Clarence Chu, a trader with options seller Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "We're highly dependent on the stockpile numbers, but crude is still trading in a range."

Oil Inventories

The Energy Department, scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. today in Washington, may say U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to Sept. 11 from 337.5 million, according to the median of 15 analyst estimates collected by Bloomberg News. The API posted an increase of 631,000 barrels.

Distillate fuel inventories surged to 170.3 million barrels last week, the API said. That's the highest level since January 1983. The Energy Department report will probably show stockpiles climbed 1.25 million barrels from 165.6 million the previous week, according to the survey.

Gasoline stockpiles increased 1.35 million barrels to 208.8 million last week, according to the API. The government report may show an increase of 700,000 barrels from 207.2 million the week before, the Bloomberg survey showed.

The dollar dropped to a 2009 low against the euro before a report forecast to show U.S. manufacturers boosted output, reducing demand for the relative safety of the greenback. The dollar dropped to $1.4686 per euro as of 11:11 a.m. in London from $1.4658 yesterday in New York.

Gasoline Demand

Gasoline consumption was at an eight-month low for a second week as the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Sept. 7 failed to ignite demand before the end of the summer driving season, according to a MasterCard Inc. report.

Motorists bought an average 8.97 million barrels a day of gasoline in the week to Sept. 11, MasterCard, the second-biggest credit card company, said in its SpendingPulse report yesterday. That's little changed from the prior week, when demand was the weakest since Jan. 9. It was the fourth time this year that demand fell short of 9 million barrels.

Brent crude oil for November settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $69.63 a barrel, down 23 cents, at 11:10 a.m. London time. The October contract expired yesterday at $67.35 a barrel, down 9 cents.

Nigeria's main rebel group extended its cease-fire by 30 days and warned that its campaign targeting oil and gas installations will continue if the government doesn't engage in meaningful talks.

"The government should use this extension of time to do the right thing instead of pretending to talk peace, while arming the military for a war it cannot win," Jomo Gbomo, a spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, said in an e-mailed statement.



Last Updated: September 16, 2009 06:52 EDT

[frawin]

I have been travelling all day and just got to where I could post the Energy Prices on the Forum. Crude Oil settled at $72.51, up $1.58 on the day. Natural Gas took another big move and settled at $3.76. up $0.44 on the day. On a BTU basis compared to Oil prices Natural Gas should be in the $9.00+ range.

[frawin]

Oil Trades Near $72 After Supplies Drop to Lowest Since January



By Grant Smith

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traded little changed near $72 a barrel in New York after the Energy Department reported that U.S. crude stockpiles dropped to the lowest level since January.

The inventories fell by 4.73 million barrels, the weekly report showed yesterday, more than the 2.5 million-barrel decline forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Crude prices were also helped by the dollar, which extended declines to the weakest level in almost a year. Global equities advanced, spurring expectations of an increase in fuel demand.

"Fundamentals are improving a bit and now they're better able to justify the actual oil price level," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. "Inventories are coming down week by week, but it's still going to be hard for crude to pass $75."

Crude oil for October delivery was at $72.53 a barrel, up 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:13 a.m. in London. Yesterday, the contract rose $1.58, or 2.2 percent, to $72.51. Futures are up 63 percent this year.

The dollar fell as low as $1.4768 per euro from $1.4709 yesterday in New York, the weakest level since Sept. 25, 2008. A lower dollar increases the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment and hedge against inflation.

"The dollar continues to hit new lows and equities markets are rallying, giving support to the renewed global economy, which will consume more oil," said Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital in Seattle. "There are not a lot of reasons to bet against oil at this point."

Fuel Supplies

Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the biggest energy-consuming nation, fell to 332.8 million barrels, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles of distillate fuel climbed 2.24 million barrels to 167.8 million, the highest since January 1983. Gasoline inventories rose 547,000 barrels to 207.7 million last week, the department said.

Refineries operated at a three-week low of 86.9 percent of capacity in the week ended Sept. 11, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous week, according to the department.

Refiner's profit margins have collapsed in the past month on expectations of falling fuel demand with the end of the peak summer demand season for gasoline. The profit from turning three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil has dropped to $4.72 a barrel today from $13.46 a month earlier.

"The crack spread and refining margins and the distillate inventories are all troubling," said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultant Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "It points to the fact that U.S. refiners are likely to cut runs in the coming weeks."

European and Asian stocks advanced, pushing the MSCI World Index higher for a third day, as Ireland detailed its plan to purge banks of toxic assets and gains in metal prices boosted earnings prospects for mining companies.

Brent crude oil for November settlement was at $71.56 a barrel, down 11 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:12 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract jumped 2.6 percent to $71.67, the highest since Aug. 28.



Last Updated: September 17, 2009 06:39 EDT

[redcliffsw]

Looks like oil has kinda settled around $70 for a while.
Wonder when it will move further and which direction?

[frawin]

Crude Oil Declines for a Second Day on Stronger U.S. Dollar


By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day, paring its weekly gain, as the dollar strengthened against the euro and dimmed the hedging appeal of commodities.

Crude is nonetheless heading for a 3.7 percent increase this week, a second straight weekly gain, after data showed an expansion in housing starts and industrial capacity utilization in the U.S. The country's supplies of distillate fuel are at their highest in 26 years, according to the Energy Department.

R20;We have the dollar consolidating after its losses and that's causing the reversal of gains in oil," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. "The market is pausing, as we've yet to see seasonal demand kick in the product market."

Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as 85 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $71.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $71.73 a barrel at 9:09 a.m. in London. Futures have risen 62 percent this year.

The dollar traded for $1.4671 per euro at 9:07 a.m. London time, rising from near a one-year low, after the European Union said yesterday "restructuring of the banking sector must take place," in proposals to be put forward at next week's Group of 20 nations meeting in Pittsburgh.

Housing starts in the U.S. rose in August to the highest level in nine months, led by construction of multifamily dwellings, a Commerce Department report yesterday showed.

R20;What weR17;ve had recently is a lot of relatively good U.S. economic data," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "Housing starts were slightly positive, building permits a little more so, and initial jobless claims were down."

Stockpiles Still Ample

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week, a sign the labor market is deteriorating at a slower pace. Applications dropped by 12,000 to 545,000 in the week ended Sept. 12, from a revised 557,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed yesterday.

Gains in oil prices this week have been tempered by still- ample U.S. inventories.

Stockpiles of crude oil in the U.S. dropped 4.73 million barrels to 332.8 million last week, the Energy Department said Sept. 16. Those inventories are still "above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year," its report showed.

Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 2.24 million barrels to 167.8 million, the highest since January 1983 and 24 percent more than the five-year average. Gasoline inventories rose 547,000 barrels to 207.7 million last week, the department said.

Brent crude oil for November settlement traded at $70.85 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, down 70 cents, at 9:08 a.m. London time.