Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Crude Oil Falls a Third Day on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs



By Grant Smith

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day before a report forecast to show the U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world's largest energy user remains mired in recession.

U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.

"Fundamentals are still pretty bad and what's really weighing on the market is inventories of middle distillates," said Johannes Benigni, chief executive officer of Vienna-based JBC Energy GmbH. "I believe in a correction to somewhere around to $50 a barrel mark."

Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.14, or $1.64, to $68.17 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded $68.23 at 10:41 a.m. London time. Prices are up 53 percent this year.

Supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased for a third month in June, a Bloomberg News survey showed yesterday.

Oil output averaged 28.23 million barrels a day last month, up 55,000 from May, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The 11 OPEC members with quotas, all except Iraq, pumped 25.86 million barrels a day, 1.015 million more than their target.

Brent crude oil for August settlement declined as much as $1.09, or 1.6 percent, to $67.70 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $67.97 a barrel at 10:38 a.m. in London.

Crude Inventories

Crude oil supplies fell 3.66 million barrels to 350.2 million, the Department of Energy said yesterday. Inventories have dropped 15.8 million barrels in the past four weeks, the biggest four-week decline in a year. Stockpiles last week were 8 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said.

Stockpiles of distillate fuel in the U.S. gained 2.9 million barrels to 155 million, the highest since 1987.

Gasoline stockpiles increased 2.33 million barrels to 211.2 million in the week ended June 26, the Energy Department said in a report yesterday. Inventories were forecast to rise by 2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of capacity in the week ended June 26, down 0.6 percentage point from the previous week, according to the DOE report. Gasoline consumption averaged 9.17 million barrels a day, rising 0.9 percent on better demand in the driving season.



Last Updated: July 2, 2009 05:42 EDT

[frawin]

Falls as Equities Slide, Dollar Rises on Economy Concerns

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a five-week low as equities dropped on growing concern that the global economic recovery will falter, hurting fuel demand.

Oil dropped for a fifth day in London, the longest losing streak since September, as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting investor appetite for commodities as a hedge against inflation. European and Asia stock markets fell and U.S futures dropped.

"There was too much optimism in the market," said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "Some of the optimism is flowing out of the market and with weaker equities and a stronger dollar, the combination of this is pushing prices lower."

Brent crude oil for August settlement fell as much as $1.96, or 3 percent, to $63.65 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $63.77 a barrel at 12:12 p.m. local time.

Prices have fallen 13 percent from a year-to-date high of $73.50 last week as a U.S. government report showed the world's largest economy lost more jobs than expected in March.

In New York, crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $2.98 to $63.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since May 28. Oil was at $63.90 at 12:23 p.m. London time. Electronic trades from July 3 are counted as part of today's session because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index sank 1.8 percent to 200.34 at 11:53 a.m. in London. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures dropped 1.2 percent. The dollar traded at $1.3893 per euro from $1.3980. A rising dollar reduces the appeal of raw materials such as oil.

Nigerian Rebels

Prices fell even as Nigerian rebels said they attacked oil installations operated by Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Armed attacks in the Niger River delta have cut more than 20 percent of the country's oil exports since 2006. Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer and the fifth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the main militant group in Nigeria, said today that it blew up a pipeline operated by Chevron Nigeria Ltd. The bomb destroyed the "strategic Okan manifold" that controls the flow for about 80 percent of the company's offshore crude oil, according to an e- mail from Jomo Gbomo, a group spokesman.

Facility Attacked

MEND said yesterday it attacked an oil facility run by Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the country's southern region.

"We had this growing disconnect between prices and current fundamentals and we are now seeing that gap start to close," said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London. "Nigeria has been priced in for now. There is not much supportive in the current fundamentals."

Gasoline for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined as much as 6.42 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $1.7266 a gallon.

Kuwait, the sixth-biggest producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, wants to see oil prices stay above $60 a barrel and will watch the market closely before deciding on its output at OPEC's meeting in September, the country's oil minister said yesterday.

"We'd like to see the price not go below a certain level, at least to meet our budgetary target," Sheikh Ahmed al- Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters yesterday in Kuwait City. That certain level for Kuwait is $60 a barrel, he said.

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state-owned oil company, lowered its official selling prices for exports of all crude oil grades to the U.S. in August. The producer raised the level of its Super Light, Extra Light and Light types for sale to Asia and reduced its Medium and Heavy prices, according to an e-mail sent to Bloomberg News.



Last Updated: July 6, 2009 07:25 EDT

[frawin]

Oil Rises for First Time in a Week as Dollar Stimulates Buying

By Grant Smith

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first day in a week as the U.S. dollar declined against the euro, spurring demand for the commodity as a hedge against inflation.

The U.S. Energy Department will probably say crude inventories fell and gasoline stockpiles grew last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before the department's weekly report tomorrow. Morgan Stanley said oil prices may average $65 next year, compared with a projection of $48 for this year, as government spending stimulates demand.

"A weaker U.S. dollar and firmer equity markets are lending temporary support to crude oil prices," said Eliane Tanner, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. "But with demand still weak, the correction could continue, especially if inventory data is bearish tomorrow."

Oil for August delivery rose as much as 84 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $64.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $64.74 a barrel at 12:22 p.m. London time. Yesterday, it fell to $64.05, the lowest settlement since May 27.

Brent crude for August rose as much as 84 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $64.89 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $64.78 a barrel at 12:22 p.m. local time.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington and will put out its Short-Term Energy Outlook monthly report today.

U.S. gasoline inventories probably rose 1 million barrels last week from 211.2 million, indicating consumption during the country's peak driving season remained lackluster, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

OPEC Reports

Crude supplies in the U.S. fell 2.9 million barrels in the week ended July 3 from 350.2 million a week earlier, based on the median of 12 estimates by analysts before tomorrow's report. Supplies of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1.83 million barrels from 155 million.

The Merrill Lynch Argentina unit of Bank of America Corp. raised its 2009 average forecast for New York-traded crude to $58.50 a barrel from $52, to reflect an improving economy.

A weaker dollar bolsters the attraction of raw materials such as oil and gold to investors. The dollar was at $1.4021 a euro at 12:23 p.m. in London, compared with $1.3904 earlier.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries releases its annual oil market outlook and yearly energy statistics tomorrow afternoon, and the Paris-based International Energy Agency will issue its monthly report on world oil demand and supply on July 10.



Last Updated: July 7, 2009 07:51 EDT

[frawin]

Oil Falls for Sixth Day on Forecasts U.S. Gasoline Stocks Grew

By Grant Smith and Christian Schmollinger

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, poised for the longest losing streak since December, before a report forecast to show U.S. fuel inventories increased in the world's largest energy consumer.

Gasoline inventories probably rose 900,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey conducted before today's Energy Department report. Yesterday, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said supplies of the motor fuel rose 767,000 barrels to 212.4 million. Nigerian rebels said they sabotaged crude pipelines run by Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Eni SpA subsidiary Agip.

"It was only a matter of time before the oil market woke up to bearish fundamentals," said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. "If we get yesterday's gasoline stock build confirmed by the Energy Department today, it will show how the recession is still eating away at demand."

Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.06, or 1.7 percent, to $61.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since May 26. Oil was at $62.18 a barrel as of 9:48 a.m. London time.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the main militant group in Nigeria's oil region, said it attacked crude trunk likes in Bayelsa state at about 2 a.m. local time.

A pipeline feeding Eni's Brass terminal was sabotaged at Nembe Creek, while Shell's Nembe Creek line was damaged at the village of Asawo, MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo said.

Slow Recovery

Oil has declined 15 percent from an eight-month intraday high of $73.38 on June 30 as higher U.S. unemployment raised concern that the economy of the world's biggest energy-consuming country will be slow to recover.

"Given the data from the U.S., the market has become cautious on the outlook for an economic recovery and that's tempered the oil price," David Moore, a commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Machinery orders in Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, fell unexpectedly for a third month in May, dropping 3 percent from April, the Cabinet Office said today. The decline is adding to signs that the recession isn't moderating for the second-largest economy.

Crude oil inventories dropped 1.4 million barrels to 348.3 million, according to the API report. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, climbed 3.42 million barrels to 158 million, the highest since 1985.

Energy Department Report

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Gasoline inventories probably rose 900,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey conducted before today's Energy Department report.

Oil also fell as the dollar advanced against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. The greenback strengthened to $1.3892 per euro as of 9:19 a.m. London time from $1.3924 yesterday and $1.4142 on July 1.

Brent crude for August settlement declined as much as 93 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $62.30 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $62.62 a barrel at 9:48 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract fell 1.3 percent to $63.23, the lowest settlement price since May 27.


Last Updated: July 8, 2009 04:50 EDT

[frawin]

Oil Rebounds From 7-Week Low as Traders Cite 'Oversold' Market


By Grant Smith

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rebounded from a seven-week low as some traders said its 15 percent decline from last month's peak, the longest losing streak this year, is overdone.

Oil snapped a six-day slump as the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, spurring investors' demand for dollar-priced assets to hedge against inflation. Crude's drop below $62.55 a barrel yesterday, the lower resistance level of the Bollinger Band, was an indication it may be oversold.

"Technically the market is oversold and we should consolidate near these levels," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London. "Crude fundamentals are not ideal at the moment, but they aren't apocalyptic, and demand is stabilizing."

Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as $1.33, or 2.2 percent, to $61.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $61.15 at 12:25 p.m. London time. Futures dropped 4.4 percent to $60.14 yesterday, the lowest close since May 19. Crude has fallen 15 percent since June 29.

Futures also gained as China's passenger-vehicle sales rose 48 percent in June, the biggest jump since February 2006, after government stimulus spending spurred a revival in the world's third-largest economy.

"We see significant upward pressure building on global energy demand as world economic growth gets back on track," said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London. "Medium-term, large fiscal and monetary policy stimuli will have a significant impact on economic activity, particularly in Asia."

Gasoline Supplies

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state-owned oil company, deepened cuts in supplies of its Arab Heavy and Medium oil grades sold under term contracts to Asia in August, refinery officials said.

The oil company will reduce overall supplies, which include the Light and Extra Light grades, by as much as 20 percent from contractual volumes, according to a survey of officials at refineries in Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

U.S. oil inventories dropped 2.9 million barrels to 347.3 million last week, the lowest since January, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. Refineries operated at 86.8 percent of capacity, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous week, the department said.

Gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.9 million barrels to 213.1 million in the week ended July 3, more than twice the increase forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, the Energy Department said. Motor fuel inventories were forecast to increase 900,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 16 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

Distillate Fuel

Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose to the highest since 1985 as consumption dropped to a 10-year low. Distillate fuel inventories rose 3.74 million barrels to 158.7 million, the biggest gain since January, the report showed.

Brent crude for August settlement rose as much as $1.45, or 2.4 percent, to $61.88 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $61.55 at 12:25 a.m. in London. Yesterday, it declined $2.80, or 4.4 percent, to $60.43, the lowest settlement since May 25.

The U.S. dollar weakened to $1.3966 per euro at 11:41 a.m. London time from $1.3850 yesterday, drawing investors to oil as a currency hedge.


Last Updated: July 9, 2009 07:26 EDT

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Oil May Fall as Global Consumption Declines, Survey Shows



By Jenny Gross

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall on speculation that the global recession and payroll cuts will sap demand and bolster U.S. supply, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Nineteen of 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 46 percent, said futures will decline through July 17. Nine respondents, or 22 percent, expect the market will be little changed and 13, or 32 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise. Last week, 49 percent of analysts said prices would drop.

U.S. gasoline supplies climbed 1.9 million barrels to 213.1 million last week, an Energy Department report on July 8 showed. Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, climbed 3.74 million barrels to 158.7 million, the biggest increase since January. The gain left distillate stockpiles 30 percent higher than the five-year average.

"I think that distillate and gasoline prices will continue to fall as inventories rise for yet another week," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston. "This will then pressure crude oil price down a bit more to between $55 and $58" a barrel.

The unemployment rate reached 9.5 percent in June, the highest since 1983, the Labor Department said last week.

Total U.S. daily fuel demand over the four weeks ended July 3 averaged 18.4 million barrels, down 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said. Distillate demand over the four-week period fell 12 percent to 3.27 million barrels a day.

Crude oil for August delivery fell $6.32, or 9.5 percent, to $60.41 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 35 percent this year.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.



     

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Crude Oil Futures Pare Losses, Trade Little Changed in New York

By John Buckley

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded little changed in New York, after falling amid lower equity prices and speculation that the global recession would sap demand for fuel and increase stockpiles.

Oil for August delivery traded at $59.75 a barrel, down 14 cetns in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:49 a.m. London time. It earler fell as low as $58.88 a barrel.

Last Updated: July 13, 2009 05:51 EDT

[Catwoman]

Gas has fallen to 2.17/gal here in Wichita...Yea!!!!!!! 

[frawin]

Oil Rises From Eight-Week Low on Economic Recovery Optimism


By Grant Smith and Alexander Kwiatkowski

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in three days on expectations that the Chinese economy expanded in the second quarter and that earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will signal that the worst of the financial crisis is over.

Oil climbed from an eight-week low as equities advanced worldwide. Singapore raised its economic growth forecast. U.S. crude-oil supplies probably fell a fifth week last week, according to a Bloomberg survey.

"Economic data has not been as bad as feared, so in our view the recession may have reached a bottom," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. "Oil fundamentals will likely get better in the second half of the year and should take prices up to $70 a barrel."

Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as $1.01, or 1.9 percent, to $60.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $60.46 at 11:34 a.m. London time. Yesterday, it fell 20 cents to $59.69 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 19.

China's economy may have expanded 7.8 percent in the second quarter as record lending and surging investment drove a rebound, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Singapore's gross domestic product will shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, less than an earlier forecast for a contraction of as much as 9 percent, the Trade Ministry said.

Goldman Sachs will post the largest profit since 2007 when it reports second-quarter earnings today, according to analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. Inventories

The MSCI World Index advanced 0.8 percent at 10:12 a.m. in London, posting a two-day gain for the first time this month. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.3 percent. The S&P 500 gained 2.5 percent to 901.05 in New York yesterday, its biggest advance since June 1.

Crude-oil supplies in the U.S. probably fell 1.8 million barrels in the week ended July 10 from 347.3 million the previous week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Stockpiles in the week ended July 3 were 18 percent higher than a year earlier.

The report is forecast to show that U.S. gasoline inventories increased 750,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. It would be the fifth straight gain.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels, according to the median of 11 analyst responses in the survey. Stockpiles in the week ended July 3 were the highest since January 1985.

Brent crude oil for August settlement rose as much as $1.26, or 2.1 percent, to $61.95 on London's ICE Futures Europe Exchange, and traded at $61.47 at 11:35 a.m.

Oil may fall below $45 a barrel by the end of August, as the $787 billion U.S. stimulus program hasn't restored demand, said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil analyst at BNP Paribas SA.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will issue a monthly report later today outlining its expectations for a possible rebound in oil demand next year.



Last Updated: July 14, 2009 07:14 EDT

[frawin]

Aug-09 Crude settled down $0.17 at $59.52, Aug Natural Gas settled at $3.429 up $0.166 on the day. Natural gas contracts are gaining volume due to traders buying the winter months at the lower prices and anticipating the price will be much higher later due to the reduced drilling resulting in declining storage gas.