Better Fill up today

[DanCookson]

March-09 Crude is trading at $39.86.

[dnalexander]

Thank you to all that keep this going when my Uncle Frank can't post. This is a unique topic that you can't find on other forums. It is a  very important topic today. It makes me proud that others fill in the gaps.

David

[DanCookson]

Just wish I could fish around for relevant articles!!  All I really have is the NYMEX info.  I know we all miss Franks insight into this sector of the market and what makes it fluctuate up and down.


March-09 Crude is trading at $41.78.

[Catwoman]

Hear that, Mr. Frank?  We miss you and need your input.  Please?

[DanCookson]

March-09 Crude is trading at $40.09.

[DanCookson]

Crude Oil Trades Near $40 in New York Before U.S. Jobs Report


By Grant Smith

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near $40 a barrel in New York before a report forecast to show that the jobless rate in the U.S. probably jumped in January to the highest level in 16 years.

Oil has lost 9 percent this year amid concerns that the deepening global recession will further erode fuel consumption. U.S. crude supplies rose 7.2 million barrels to 346.1 million barrels last week, the highest since July 2007, the Energy Department said yesterday. OPEC is in the process of implementing a record supply cut announced in December to reverse the slump in prices.

"Oil traders are likely to wait for non-farm payroll data release tomorrow as a leading indicator of underlying oil demand," said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. in London. "The cuts already announced by OPEC will probably be sufficient to tighten up the market."

Crude oil for March delivery was at $40.34 a barrel, up 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:19 p.m. London time. Prices are down 9.3 percent this year and 54 percent from a year earlier.

Brent crude in London traded at a $4.42 premium over West Texas Intermediate futures on the Nymex. Brent oil for March settlement rose as much as 95 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $45.10 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded for $44.77 at 1:20 p.m. local time.

"European crude is tighter than U.S. crude, and that this should support Brent relative to WTI," said Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe General SA in London. "European refinery runs are hardly lower than a year ago, while U.S. crude runs are sharply lower than a year ago."

Payrolls Falls

U.S. unemployment climbed to 7.5 percent, and payrolls fell by 530,000, the 13th consecutive decrease, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Labor Department figures tomorrow.

U.S. fuel demand during the past four weeks averaged 19.5 million barrels a day, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier, the report showed.

"The market is stuck in a sideways range as the impact of the OPEC production cuts conflicts with high stock levels and weak demand," said Christopher Bellew, senior broker with Bache Commodities Ltd. in London.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided on Dec. 17 to trim production by 9 percent beginning on Jan. 1. The 12-member group pumped an average 28.565 million barrels a day last month, down 1.05 million from December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of oil companies, producers and analysts.

Crude oil has been trading at about $40 a barrel in the past three days. The 30-day historical price volatility for crude oil has fallen to 97 these two days, the first time the reading has dropped below 100 in about six weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[DanCookson]

March-09 Crude is trading at $40.17.

[DanCookson]

March-09 Crude is trading at $41.46.

[DanCookson]

March-09 Crude is trading at $38.15.

[DanCookson]

IEA Cuts Demand Outlook, Sees 1 Million-Barrel Drop


By Grant Smith

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecast for 2009, projecting consumption will decline by 1 million barrels a day as the worldwide recession deepens, the biggest drop since 1982.

The adviser to 28 nations trimmed its 2009 forecast by 570,000 barrels to 84.7 million a day because of a weaker economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The agency warned slipping investment in capacity may trigger a price rebound that "could again destabilize the global economy."

"We've been following the downward spiral in economic expectations," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division, said in a phone interview from Paris. "We're on a downward escalator in terms of economic expectations, but at the same time the supply side is being hit."

Oil prices have plunged more than $100 a barrel from a record in July as the U.S., Europe and Japan face their first simultaneous recession since World War II. Crude futures in New York traded below $40 a barrel today.

It's the agency's sixth consecutive reduction of its 2009 crude demand estimate, now forecast to shrink 1.1 percent from 2008. The biggest revision was made to the world's most developed economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The IEA cut demand expectations there 340,000 barrels a day to 46 million barrels a day, implying a contraction of 1.5 million barrels a day, or 3.2 percent.

Developing Nations

Estimates for oil consumption this year among developing nations were lowered by 230,000 barrels a day to 38.7 million a day, with the outlook for Asia and the former Soviet Union "particularly grim," it said.

The IEA trimmed its forecast for supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries next year by 110,000 barrels a day to 50.9 million barrels a day. The total now includes 1 million barrels a day from Indonesia, which left OPEC at the start of the year.

While non-OPEC supply is still projected to increase 400,000 barrels a day from last year, the IEA's Fyfe said the downward revision "could well go further into 2009 if spending cuts have an immediate impact on drilling."

"There's a real risk that supply takes a hit this year because of lower prices and scant credit," Fyfe said.

OPEC Supply

OPEC, responsible for more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will have to provide about 28.8 million barrels a day this year to balance supply and demand, the IEA said.

Its 12 members pumped 29 million barrels a day of crude oil in January, 950,000 barrels a day less than in December, as the organization implemented announced supply cuts, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, cut by 300,000 barrels a day last month to 8.1 million barrels a day, according to the agency.

The 11 OPEC nations bound by production quotas pumped 26.65 million barrels a day last month, the IEA said, compared with their official Jan. 1 limit of 24.845 million a day.

The IEA has reduced its estimate for OPEC's average capacity this year to 35.1 million barrels a day from 35.5 million a day in July, when prices reached a record $147.27 a barrel.