Better Fill up today

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude settled at $44.60, up $5.57 on the day, Feb-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.622, down $0.237 on the day. 

Better keep your tank full, if the Israelis escalate their action, crude is going up.

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude is trading at $41.875, down $2.725, Feb-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.57, down $0.052.

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude settled at $46.34, up $1.74 on the day, Feb-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.971, up $0.349 on the day. 

[frawin]

Crude Oil and natural Gas are both trading higher in Singapore, the increased offensive by Israel is pushing the Petroleum Sector higher, in overseas markets.

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude is trading at $46.975, up $0.635, Feb-09 Natural Gas is trading at $5.985, up $0.014.

[frawin]

Oil Rises a Third Day; Gaza Attacks Threaten Mideast Stability


By Christian Schmollinger and Will Kennedy

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day after Israeli troops entered the Gaza Strip, escalating the conflict and threatening stability in the Middle East, the largest oil- producing region.

Oil gained after thousands of Israeli troops crossed the border on Jan. 3 to capture bases that Hamas militants have used to launch rocket attacks on the country. Arab nations and the international community must do more to support GazaR17;s population, Tehran-based Press TV reported IranR17;s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as saying yesterday.

R20;In the last one, two days, with the ground offensive going on, oil traders start looking at it and are a bit more concerned," said Johannes Benigni, chief executive officer of Vienna-based JBC Energy. "We expect for the year to have an average price of $74."

Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as $2.34, or 5.1 percent, to $48.68 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $46.83 a barrel at 10:14 a.m. London time.

Prices climbed 23 percent last week, the most since August 1986, buoyed by the Gaza conflict, a natural gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine, and a rebound in equity prices. Oil tumbled 27 percent the week before.

The Middle East accounts for almost a third of the world's oil production. Prices jumped to a then-record $78.40 a barrel in July 2006 after Israel attacked Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer.

R16;Nervous MarketR17;

R20;This has got the market nervous,R21; said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. "There's always a chance that the violence could widen. Because the Mideast is the No. 1 producer of crude this tends to provide support to oil."

Crude pared earlier gains today as the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro, undermining the appeal of dollar- priced commodities used to hedge against inflation. The U.S. currency was at $1.3707 per euro.

Oil surged in 1974, helping spur a recession in the developed world, after an oil embargo that followed the Arab- Israeli war in October 1973.

Israel has resisted international calls for a halt in hostilities, saying it needs to shut down the military wing of Hamas. The Islamic group refused to renew a six-month cease-fire that expired on Dec. 19, citing IsraelR17;s economic blockade of the province.

Oil fell 54 percent last year, the first annual drop since 2001 and the biggest loss since trading started. Prices reached a five-year low of $32.40 a barrel on Dec. 19.

Cushing Inventories

Crude oil in New York is trading at a discount to Brent as a result of a surge in inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, said Mitsubishi's Nunan. Storage tanks near the town are the delivery point for futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Cushing supplies in the week ended Dec. 26 were at 28.1 million barrels, said the U.S. Energy Department on Dec. 31. That's slightly down from 28.6 million barrels in the previous week, the most the Department has ever reported.

R20;Cushing stockpiles are out of control," said Mitsubishi's Nunan. "They've increased the capacity there so we're not at tank top but we can't be far from it."

The surplus of crude may exacerbate the so-called contango structure in oil prices, where futures for prompt delivery are cheaper than those for later, he said.

R20;If you think there wonR17;t be a shortage of crude in the next couple of months and your storage is full, you'll have to dump the oil at whatever price," said Nunan. "So I think we'll continue to see this steep contango, which means the front month could test the lows again near expiry."






Jan

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude settled at $48.81, up $2.47 on the day, the back months are trading higher with near term in the $50.00 to $60.00 range and the further out back period trading in the $70.00 range , Feb-09 Natural Gas settled at $6.072, up $0.101on the day, the back months are trading higher.
I think the higher crude prices are due to the OPEC announced cuts or in anticipation of the OPEC Cuts and Natural Gas is trading higher due to the cold winter weather across a broad section of the country and also Gas is trading higher based on BTU comparison to crude/fuel/heating oil verses Natural Gas.

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude is trading at $50.15, up $1.34, Feb-09 Natural Gas is trading at $6.20, up $0.128.

[frawin]

Oil Rises to 5-Week High Above $50 on OPEC Cuts, Russia Dispute

By Grant Smith



Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a five-week high above $50 as Kuwait and Qatar indicated they will implement supply cuts announced by OPEC last month, and a dispute between Russia and Ukraine reduced natural gas shipments to Europe.



Kuwait and Qatar plan to cut oil shipments to Asia starting in January, refinery officials in the region said today, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on a record output reduction on Dec. 17. OAO Gazprom cut gas shipments to Europe through Ukraine to less than one third of normal levels, a NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy spokesman said.



R20;The focus is shifting from demand to supply again," said Eugen Weinberg, a Commerzbank AG analyst in Frankfurt. "We know demand is going to be very weak, but cuts from OPEC and the latest geopolitical risk will compensate."



Oil for February delivery gained as much as much as $1.66, or 3.4 percent, to $50.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the highest since Dec. 1. It was at $49.86 at 12:29 p.m. London time.



Brent crude oil for February settlement climbed as much as $2.24, or 4.5 percent, to $51.86 a barrel on LondonR17;s ICE Futures Europe exchange, also the highest since Dec. 1. The contract traded at $51.31 a barrel at 12:29 p.m.



R20;Russia continues to play hardball with Ukraine on the natural gas contract," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix Gmbh in Zug, Switzerland. "If a solution for a return to normality is not found very quickly, this should result in incremental demand on fuel oil, naphtha, heating oil to substitute for the missing natural gas."



Gaza Conflict



Oil also advanced as the conflict between the Israeli army and Hamas reached its 11th day, with pitched battles in the Gaza Strip. Iran, the second-largest producer in OPEC and a supporter of Hamas, has called for a suspension of crude exports to allies of Israel.



OPEC decided to cut production by 4.2 million barrels a day from September levels at a Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria in response to tumbling prices, which last year had a record drop of 54 percent.



Kuwait, OPEC's third-largest producer in November, will reduce shipments of oil sold under long-term contracts by 5 percent starting Jan. 22, said refinery officials. Qatar, the group's second-smallest producer, will slash cargoes by as much as 6 percent in February, compared with 5 percent in January.



The U.S. Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington.



U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased 1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 2, from 318.7 million the week before, according to the median of seven analyst estimates.

[frawin]

Feb-09 Crude settled at $48.58, down $0.23 on the day, Feb-09 Natural Gas settled at $5.983, down $0.089 on the day. 
The Back months are trading up and are in the $55.00 to $60.00 range near term, say March-09 thru Oct-09.