Social Security Cost of Living Increase

[W. Gray]

It does not seem like the prospects for a Social Security Cost of Living increase later this year are looking good.

This is the latest data from the Social Security web site showing the numbers involved in the number crunching. They keep hovering lower from the 2014 number base that caused the last increase.

The CPI-W magic number that gave the 2014 Cost of Living Increase was 234.242. That figure is the base number that has to be beat during the third quarter: July, August, and September of this year to trigger an increase. That does not seem likely.

The "1.4% lower" is computed by averaging the last three months, which comes to 230.941. They are saying the 230.941 figure is 1.4% lower than the 2014 base figure of 234.242.

[W. Gray]

The CPI-W figures for March 2016 were released today.

The CPI-W index for the month of March is 232.209.

This gives an average for the last three months of 231.414. In October, the last three months of July, August, and September has to average more than 234.242, in order to trigger a Social Security Cost of Living increase.

Percentage wise, this latest three month average of 231.414 raises the prospects of a Social Security COLA from -1.4% last month to -1.2% this month. Still a long way to go for a Social Security COLA next year.

Another way of putting it is that if all the figures were to stay constant until the end of September, seniors  would have their monthly payments cut by 1.2%--provided the law allowed for cutting Social Security.

[upoladeb]

ssssh don't give em any ideas!

[W. Gray]

The April CPI-W figures were released this morning and show consumer cost increases for gasoline, shelter, and food in the past month.

These increases have raised, somewhat, the prospects of a Social Security COLA for next year.

The projection of a COLA is now at -.9% compared to -1.2% last month.

Five more release dates are due through October 18 that will determine if there will be a COLA effective December 1, for payment in January.

[W. Gray]

Bureau of Labor figures released today for May 2016 indicates the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 234.444. This is the group that Social Security Cost of Living adjustments are based on.

The 234.444 figure gives an, at this point in time, a projected COLA next year of -4 percent, which translates to zero.



The Bureau says the food index declined in May, but the indexes for energy and all items less food and energy rose, resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items increase.

The food index fell 0.2 percent, as all six major grocery store food group
indexes declined. The energy index increased 1.2 percent as the gasoline index rose 2.3 percent and the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also advanced.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in May. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent, and the indexes for medical care, apparel, motor vehicle insurance, and education were among indexes that also increased.

These advances more than offset declines in an array of indexes including used cars and trucks, communications, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and new vehicles.

[W. Gray]

AARP is reporting, today, a prediction of a "tiny 0.2 percent cost-of-living adjustment next year" for Social Security. The prediction comes from the Social Security Trustees.

That is two-tenths of one percent.

AARP is also reporting a projected increase in the Medicare Part B deduction from $104.90 to $107.60, an increase of $2.70.

According to Social Security, the average Social Security payment before deduction was $1,321 in January 2016.

If the predicted figures should hold, a two-tenths of one percent increase would amount to $2.64 for the average payment, leaving a net increase of four cents after deduction for Part B.

[Diane Amberg]

It's going to cost them more to process this change than anyone gets a benefit from. Why bother?

[W. Gray]

Data released today by Bureau of Labor indicates the figure for a projected COLA is at -.1% as the cost of some goods and services continue to increase.

In the next three months, the government will release data to compute the final figure.

The Social Security Trustees predict a .2% increase.

[W. Gray]

Latest CPI-W data released by the Bureaus of Labor today indicates a .3% Social Security COLA prediction for 2017, at this point in time.

Data released in September and October will have to be added to the mix for a final determination. The figure can go up or down depending on how the economy goes.

[W. Gray]

CPI-W statistics for August were released by the Bureau of Labor this morning.

There is no change in the predicted three tenths of one percent Social Security Cola, but it came close to .4%.

Next month will be the release for September that will determine what the COLA might be next year.