This and That...

[Ross]

John
Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

ShadowStats Newsletter
"John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.

Some Biographical & Additional Background Information
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me "John." For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce.  Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.

That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. 

Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.

Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here).

An old friend—the late-Doug Gillespie—asked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics.  The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004.  The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. — John Williams

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( Something to think about, my note)
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OPEN Commentaries from June 2014

No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  June, 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize "Renewed" Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  June, 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  June, 16th, 2014
• Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions  June, 12th, 2014
• May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  June, 6th, 2014
• Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity  June, 4th, 2014
• New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate

http://www.shadowstats.com/commentaries?ym=20146&content=open&show=Open+Commentaries

[Warph]

Happy Kwanzaa! Obuma Message, Parade Fail,
And A Made-up Holiday By A Torturer

Now Obuma's just funning us, isn't he?

The White House        ✔ @WhiteHouse
Follow

"Michelle and I extend our warmest wishes to those celebrating Kwanzaa."
—President Obama
11:22 AM - 26 Dec 2014

Not everybody embraces the efforts to push Kwanzaa.  The LA Parade failed to attract any interest and was stopped after ten minutes:

Perhaps background of its invention and its inventor has something to do with it, including that it was created by a deranged torturer of women.
http://archive.frontpagemag.com/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=20535

[Warph]

 

Obuma: U.S. Is Less Racially Divided Since I Came In

Black is white, white is black, truth is a lie, and our friends are our enemies.  Welcome to the "Obuma Effect"...it's hard for me to fathom just how delusional this lack wit, feckless, destructive clown is.  Is the ego that large, or is he such a master of lies that even he believes them?  I really thought we had reached the pinnacle of lies with Willy and Hillary, then came Pelosi and Dirty Harry, now Jesse Jerkson and Al CRAPton and his ilk.  Thank G_d they're all demoRats. 
Obuma could have stopped this the day he was elected but didn't.  Whites that grew up in the fifties shed a tear when they saw MLK's dream fulfilled with Obuma's election because some remembered how bad it was before.  Obuma on the day he was swore in sent every white person a message of revenge with the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr., that said "whites get right."  We now know what he meant... we are guilty of some crimes committed hundreds of years ago simply because we are white, so forget the Black slave runners of Africa that lined their pockets with the white mans  gold, etc., etc.
It will take years for this to go away, if ever... trust once lost is very hard to regain.   And frankly, I personally don't trust people who vote or support anyone solely based on the color of their skin.  I think the blacks are going to have a very hard time of it until they can truly demonstrate they too can be color blind.  Of course, this is my opinion.... Warph
color]

    WASHINGTON –
http://nypost.com/2014/12/26/obama-says-us-less-racially-divided/

President Obama says the United States is less Cly divided despite the tensions raging from deadly police shootings and emotional protests.

    Compared to six years ago when he made history as the first black president, Obama says American race relations are on the upswing.

    "I actually think that it's probably in its day-to-day interactions less racially divided," Obama told National Public Radio.

    Americans, however, seem to disagree.
   
A Bloomberg Politics survey out this month found a majority of Americans – 53 percent – feel interactions between white and black communities have deteriorated since Obama took office.

[Ross]

[Warph]

Police Officer's Final Act of Kindness Caught on Tape Before Dying

VIDEO:

PAUL HARVEY: "WHAT ARE POLICEMEN MADE OF?"

Some of us remember radio legend Paul Harvey well, some of you may too young to know who the man was at all. Either way, what this man penned and spoke of over fourty years ago, certainly applies now more than ever today.

We can start from a week ago via Sharpton, up to what happened yesterday with the execution of two officers in NY.

Also, here's another fact I didn't know about Harvey...his own father was a police officer. He also was killed while on duty. Harvey was only three years old when this happened.

And now, for the rest of the story...

VIDEO:   

Transcript: Here's his tribute to police officers that he penned in 1970:

"The Policeman"

A policeman is a composite of what all men are, mingling of a saint and sinner, dust and deity.

What that really means is that they are exceptional, they are unusual, they are not commonplace. Buried under the froth is the fact: and the fact is, less than one-half of one percent of policemen misfit the uniform. And that is a better average than you would find among clergymen!

What is a policeman? He, of all men, is at once the most needed and the most wanted. A strangely nameless creature who is "sir" to his face and "pig" or worse to his back.

He must be such a diplomat that he can settle differences between individuals so that each will think he won.

But... If the policeman is neat, he is conceited; If he's careless, he's a bum. If he's pleasant, he's a flirt; If he's not, he's a grouch.

He must make instant decisions which would require months for a lawyer.

But... if he hurries, he's careless; If he's deliberate, he's lazy. He must be first to an accident, infallible with a diagnosis. He must be able to start breathing, stop bleeding, tie splints and above all, be sure the victim goes home without a limp.

The police officer must know every gun, draw on the run, and hit where it doesn't hurt. He must be able to whip two men twice his size and half his age without damaging his uniform and without being "brutal." If you hit him...he's a coward. If he hits you... he's a bully.

The policeman, from a single human hair, must be able to describe the crime, the weapon, the criminal and tell you where the criminal is hiding. But.... if he catches the criminal, he's lucky; if he doesn't, he is a dunce.

He runs files and writes reports until his eyes ache, to build a case against some felon who will get "dealed out" by a shameless shamus.

The policeman must be a minister, a social worker, a diplomat, a tough guy and a gentleman.

And of course, he'll have to be a genius... for he will have to feed a family on a policeman's salary.

[Warph]

NBC Asked America For The Meaning Of Christmas:
'JESUS' Didn't Make Their Cut

NBC Nightly News offered two stories on Christmas in their December 25 newscast, including a show-ender about "what Christmas means to me." Substitute anchor Tamron Hall offered this introduction: "Finally, on this special night, a question: What does Christmas mean to you? Maybe it's the presents, the lights, the music, or getting together with family. We put the question to people around the country and discovered once against that Christmas means something a little different to everyone."

Somehow, this perfectly pleasant three-minute segment included lot of talk about family time and presents, and even someone saying "Happy Hanukkah," but included no one uttering the name "Jesus." No one defined Christmas as about Christ, NBC?

(Earlier, Ron Mott did find time for a corporate plug: "Christmas, of course, is a holiday for gathering, and that's exactly what thousands upon thousands of people are doing around our iconic Christmas tree at Rockefeller Plaza.")

The exclusion is not that surprising, since the NBC evening newscast only used the name twice in the entire last month. Somehow, the networks find Jesus talk extremely grating and sectarian to non-believers and Americans of other religions.

There was a brief mention on Saturday, December 5 from anchor Lester Holt:
    LESTER HOLT: There was a Christmas celebration today in the place it all began, Palestinians and pilgrims gathered to light a Christmas tree in Bethlehem, the town that`s believed to be the birthplace of Jesus Christ. The lighting was held outside the Church of the Nativity and followed by a fireworks display over Manger Square.


On December 22, the name was used as "incidental sound" in a Cynthia McFadden story on healing and faith:
    FATHER JOHN MURRAY: Jesus Christ.

    CYNTHIA McFADDEN: It`s not shocking that a  Catholic priest believes in the power of prayer, but it is a bit of a surprise that Father John Murray says he can prove it. Do you think you're a miracle?

    FR. MURRAY: Yes, oh, without a doubt.

    McFADDEN: Four years ago Father Murray broke his neck in a fall.

    FR. MURRAY: I was paralyzed from my chest down.

    McFADDEN: Doctors told him he'd never walk again.

    FR. MURRAY: "You should expect no voluntary movement," that's a quote.

    McFADDEN: But his doctors were wrong.

CBS Evening News worked in just one J-word -- on Christmas Eve from substitute anchor Jim Axelrod: "Tonight, a more solemn gathering as mass is celebrated at the Church of the Nativity, built on what's believed to be the birthplace of Jesus Christ."


ABC's World News never placed the name of Jesus in their evening newscasts over the last month. Anchor David Muir did draw one as an expression of shock on the December 9 Nightline:

    DAVID MUIR: Do you revel in sort of this notion that you'll define Cinderella for a generation of kids who'll...

    ANNA KENDRICK (ACTRESS, "INTO THE WOODS"): Oh, Jesus! No, but thanks for that.

- See more at: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2014/12/26/nbc-asks-america-meaning-christmas-jesus-didnt-make-their-cut#sthash.einkkAez.dpuf

[Warph]

California Gears Up For Driver's Licenses For Illegal Aliens

(Out of the shadows and documented... Can't read English, can't speak English but, they'll be licensed to drive.  Can't afford a car of their own, can't pay for insurance but, they'll be out there on the road.  Won't obey the driving laws, won't stop after an accident but, we're going to give them access to our highways.  Just like Obamacare... what can possibly go wrong?  And Jose get to turn his old one in for a new one):

Via KTVU - http://wn.ktvu.com/story/27710802/california-gears-up-for-migrant-drivers-licenses

    While tens of thousands of immigrants living in the country illegally are gearing up to apply for a long-sought driver's license in California starting Jan. 2, others are being urged to think twice.

    Immigrant advocates say the vast majority should be able to get licensed without trouble but they want anyone who previously obtained a driver's license under a false name or someone else's Social Security number to speak first with a lawyer, fearing a new application could trigger a fraud investigation.

    The same applies to immigrants with a prior deportation order or criminal record because federal immigration officials and law enforcement can access Department of Motor Vehicles data during an investigation.

    The advice isn't meant to frighten immigrants from seeking licenses that are meant to make their lives easier — especially because many already risk getting ticketed or having their car impounded simply by driving to work or taking their children to school.

    "For the vast majority of people, getting a license is a good decision," said Alison Kamhi, staff attorney at the Immigrant Legal Resource Center. "At the same time, I think it is important people are aware there is some risk."

    The nation's most populous state is preparing to start issuing driver's licenses to immigrants in the country illegally in a bid to make the roads safer and ease fears for more than a million people to get behind the wheel. California's program eclipses the scope and scale of those approved in nine other states, including Nevada, Colorado and Illinois.[...]

    California expects 1.4 million people to apply for the licenses — which include a distinct marking from those issued to U.S. citizens and residents — over the next three years. Officials say they don't know if there will be an initial surge, but the number of people making license appointments more than doubled to 379,000 during the first two weeks immigrants were allowed to sign up.

    Immigrant advocates said they don't foresee major problems with the rollout of the program because the state has had more than a year to prepare and an ample budget — $141 million spanning three years.

    In Nevada, about 90 percent of immigrants failed the required written test during the first few weeks a driver authorization card was offered this year because they were not prepared. In Colorado, the state had no startup funding to issue licenses this year and couldn't keep pace with demand, leading to monthslong waits.

    Jonathan Blazer, advocacy and policy counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union Foundation, said he expects California to license as many immigrants in the country illegally as the nine other states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico combined.

[Ross]

Wisconsin Sheriff Reveals the Seven Words He Would Use to Change the Second Amendment

INDIANAPOLIS — Sheriff David Clarke Jr. may not be a household name...yet. But he's well on his way after his rousing speech at the 2014 NRA convention. Consider the standing ovation he received after revealing the seven words he would add to the Second Amendment: "Keep your hands off our guns, dammit."

Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke (Source: TheBlaze)
Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke (Source: TheBlaze)
Clarke, the outspoken gun proponent who heads the sheriff's office in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, was easily one of the most popular speakers during the convention's leadership forum. His comments about amending the Constitution were aimed at former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, who said in his recent book that he would change the Second Amendment by adding five words in the middle: "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms when serving in the militia shall not be infringed."

"My reaction was, 'What!'" Clarke said, adding, "Just what part of 'shall not be infringed' does Justice Stevens not understand?"

That comment drew another standing ovation.

But he wasn't done there, going on to say he was sick of the Second Amendment being the "bastard child of the Bill of Rights."

"The armed citizen made America free and the armed citizen will keep America free!" Clarke said, also calling the armed citizen the "great equalizer" and giving examples of three such instances in his area.

"Those firearms in the hands of law-abiding citizens saved people's lives," he added, declaring he "damn well meant it" when he took his oath to defend the Constitution.

"We're partners now," he said in closing after calling on people to join pro-gun groups. He also warned them that the fight to defend the Second Amendment will be a tough, never-ending one.

"Are you ready?"

The answer seemed to be found in a final standing ovation.

You can watch the video of his speech at the web site:
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/04/25/wisconsin-sheriff-reveals-the-seven-words-he-would-use-to-change-the-second-amendment/

Or youou can watch the speech on youtube at

[Warph]

Hope you had a Merry Christmas everybody.  May you. . .
◾Keep "Christ" in Christmas

◾Keep the "mass" in Christmas (by going to church)

◾Keep the "Holy" in Holidays

◾Keep St. Nicholas, who battled for the deity of Christ at the Council of Nicea, in Santa Claus.

◾Keep the gift of God in your Christmas gifts.

Thanks to all of you readers and commenters for your support of this blog, 'This & That," over the past year.   May God, who was born as a baby and became one of us,  give you the joy of this Holiday Season and bless you throughout the new year and always.

....Warph

[Warph]

Sunday Smile: Evan Catches Santa Claus...Or Does Santa Catch Evan

?

(Yes, Evan, there IS a Santa Claus!)

Via IJR:

Seven-year-old Evan thought he had found a way to outsmart Santa. He set up a surveillance camera set up to catch the big man's arrival on Christmas Eve.

When the family gathered to watch the video the next day, Evan got what he had been waiting for. The sound of sleigh bells and Santa's dramatic "poof" into the room were enough to cause wonder...even as the little tech wizard wondered why Santa hasn't noticed his set-up.

But Evan spoke too soon. Because moments after delivering the presents, Santa looked into the camera and delivered a gentle reprimand.