2012 Senate Races

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Senate race coverage:
http://senate.ontheissues.org/Senate/Senate.htm#az

Now that the presidential primaries are decided, we turn our attention to the Senate races. Ongoing now, and for the next several months, are Senate primary debates and then the Senate general election debates. We cover the challengers via those debates, as well as the incumbents' voting records for comparison. Some highlights:

---- Senate primary debates:
http://senate.ontheissues.org/Senate/Senate_Debates_2012.htm

---- Senate incumbent voting records:
http://senate.ontheissues.org/

---- Senate challenger interviews:
http://senate.ontheissues.org/2012_OTI_Senate.htm

---- Senate TV ad summaries:
http://senate.ontheissues.org/2012_Senate_Ads.htm

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Below we have a list of all the polls used on this site. Only nonpartisan polls are used; polls taken by pollsters paid for by one of the parties are intentionally omitted. The dates given are when the poll started and ended. The polls for each state are sorted in descending order of their midpoints. Incumbents are denoted by an asterisk.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/senate_polls.html


The site also has a page describing the Senate races, including brief descriptions of the situation, the names and photos of the candidates, and links to their campaign pages, Wikipedia entries, and state parties.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/index.html

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06/19/12 Daily Presidental Tracking Poll:
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration's policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.


See Trends:

A president's Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president's Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns.

Currently, 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president.

Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15

Looking at the Electoral College map, Romney now leads in North Carolina and Missouri. Obama leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  The race is a toss-up in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado.



Senate & House:
06/18/12 Rasmussen Polls:
Election 2012:

Nebraska Senate: Fischer (R) 56%, Kerrey (D) 38%

Massachusetts: Scott Brown and *Cheroke wanna-be Liz Warren: 42% tied
*The dust-up over Warren's claim of Native American heritage surfaced at the end of April when The Boston Herald first reported that Harvard University, where Warren works as a law professor, had touted her as a Native American.
It was later revealed that Warren had listed herself in law school directories as having Native American heritage. She also identified her race as "white" on an employment record at the University of Texas and declined to apply for admission to Rutgers Law School under a program for minority students.

Indiana: Dem & Rep: Tied @ 42%


A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district's congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by six points the week before, 45% to 39%, and seven points 44% to 37%, the week before that.



OBAMACARE:The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end of this month on the constitutionality of President Obama's health care law, and most voters hope the law is overturned.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters would like to see the Supreme Court overturn the health care law. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree and want to see the high court uphold the law's legality instead.
Media coverage now implies that the U.S. Supreme Court will determine the fate of President Obama's health care law. But nothing the court decides will keep the law alive for more than a brief period of time.

There are three ways the health care law could meet its end. The first, obviously, is the Supreme Court could declare some or all of it unconstitutional in June.

If it gets past that hurdle, the law also could be ended by Election 2012. If a Republican president is elected, the GOP will almost certainly also win control of the Senate and retain control of the House. While the details might take time, a Republican sweep in November would ultimately end the Obama experiment.

But even if the law survives the Supreme Court and the next election, the clock will be ticking. Recent estimates suggest that the law would cause 11 million people to lose their employer-provided insurance and be forced onto a government-backed insurance plan. That's a problem because 77 percent of those who now have insurance rate their current coverage as good or excellent. Only 3 percent rate their coverage as poor. For most of the 11 million forced to change their insurance coverage then, it will be received as bad news and create a pool of vocally unhappy voters.

Additionally, the cost estimates for funding the program are likely to keep going up. Eighty-one percent of voters expect it to cost more than projected, and recent Congressional Budget Office estimates indicate voters are probably right. But it's not the narrow specifics and cost estimates that guarantee the ultimate demise of the president's health care plan. It's the fact that the law runs contrary to basic American values and perceptions.

This, then, is the third hurdle the law faces: Individual Americans recognize that they have more power as consumers than they do as voters. Their choices in a free market give them more control over the economic world than choosing one politician or another.

Seventy-six percent think they should have the right to choose between expensive insurance plans with low deductibles and low-cost plans with higher deductibles. A similar majority believes everyone should be allowed to choose between expensive plans that cover just about every imaginable medical procedure and lower-cost plans that cover a smaller number of procedures. All such choices would be banned under the current health care law.

Americans want to be empowered as health care consumers. Eighty-two percent believe that if an employer pays for health insurance, the worker should be able to use that money and select an insurance product that meets his or her individual needs. If the plan they select costs less than the company plan, most believe the worker should get to keep the change.

It's not just the idea of making the choice that drives these numbers, it's the belief held by most Americans that competition will do more than government regulation to reduce the cost of health care. For something as fundamental as medical care, government policy must be consistent with deeply held American values. That's why an approach that increases consumer choice has solid support and a plan that relies on mandates and trusting the government cannot survive.