The Electoral Math: Obama Wins Second Term...

[Warph]

...according to the Washington Post.

It's early in the head-to-head campaign, with some polls showing Romney ahead and others showing Obama.  The deciding factor, of course, is the electoral college.  It takes 270 to win.  According to this analysis in the Washington Post, Obama has 196 electoral votes tied up, with 41 leaning his way  (total=237).  Romney has 170 solid, with 21 leaning (total=191).  There are 110 electoral votes in play that could go for either candidate, which means that the election will be decided by nine states:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia.

Here is a likely scenario: Southern states break for Romney (Virginia 13, North Carolina 15, Florida 29;  Total: 248) as do the Western states (Nevada 6, Colorado 9; total: 263), and throw in New Hampshire (4; Total: 267).  The upper midwest states states go for Obama (Wisconsin 10, Iowa 6, Ohio 18, Pennsylvania 20;  Total: 291).  Obama wins.

Romney would have to get at least one of the upper midwest states, though the economically-depressed rustbelt tends to lurch to the Democrats.  Then again, rural Iowa would be enough to elect Romney.

Do you see any of these states going in a different-than-predicted direction?

[Warph]

Another way to look at it is that Romney has to win all the states that McCain won (which is nearly certain) and flip Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana (perennial Red states that McCain lost) back into the red state column, then he needs to pick up 51 more electoral votes from the following states currently classified as toss-ups by Real Clear Politics:

Florida – 29
Ohio – 18
Michigan – 16
Wisconsin – 10
Colorado – 9
Iowa – 6
New Hampshire – 4

Wild Cards that could help Romney:

Picking Chris Christie as the VP puts New Jersey – 14 and Pennsylvania – 20 (an already purplish state where Christie is very popular) into play.

Picking Pawlenty as the VP might put purplish Minnesota – 10 into play.

Nevada – 6 was blue last time, and RCP classifies it as leaning toward Obuma, but it's really more purplish.  And it is a heavily Mormon state.  Romney might benefit from his religion in that state.

It's not unreasonable to wonder whether Romney could pull off a surprise in his home state of Massachusetts – 11.  It would admittedly be unlikely... that's why it would be a surprise.

For all the sound and fury, Florida has only gone blue four times in the last half century and has never gone blue two elections running.

Ohio has also been a pretty reliable win for Republicans historically.  Though Obuma did win there.  In the last 50 years it has only gone blue in two consecutive elections for Bill Clinton.  And Obuma is no Bill Clinton.

A simple path to victory for Romney:

Given the 219 that he should be able to lock up, if Romney wins Florida and Ohio, then he only has to win one other state.

He cannot win from the toss-up states only if he does not win either Florida or Ohio.

Obviously, if he picks off some of the wild cards mentioned above, his paths to victory expand.

Given what I said in the Wild Cards section above, I think it likely that Romney will win Florida and Ohio.

As I see it, there are three possibilities in this election:

1. Obuma wins in an electoral squeaker... denying Romney that one extra state.
2. Romney wins in an electoral squeaker... only picking up the one extra state he needs.
3. Romney wins with a strong, though not overwhelming, electoral total of about 350.

That last possibility is what you get if the breaks all go Romney's way... and that's the way things usually go.  The breaks don't usually split, one side usually gets most of them.  And the breaks, along with the late undecided voters, usually go for the challenger.

I think the conventional wisdom that Obuma is a shoo-in is founded on the fact that he's still very popular in the already deep blue urban areas in blue states (where he was guaranteed to win anyway).  These areas also happen to be where most opinion leaders call home.

One more remark on Ohio.  In the history of the Republican party, only three Democrat incumbents have been able to win the state in consecutive elections: Wilson, FDR and Clinton.

I doubt very seriously that Obuma will be the fourth.

Likewise, the last Democrat incumbent to carry Florida in consecutive elections was FDR.  Clinton was the only Democrat incumbent to pick up Florida in his second term.

Again, I think the trends will favor Romney here.

....Warph