US Fire Arms Co. Collectability in the future?

[Virginia Gentleman]

Now that it looks like these may no longer be produced and their numbers are small to begin with, how collectible and valuable do you think USFA will be in the future?  Prices are already rising as supply has dried up and to compare them to the Great Westerns of the 1950s and 1960s as far as value does seem to mirror the eventual collector market.  For my money I would rather have a used USFA over Colt 3rd gens anyday.

[Gen. Jackson]

Now that it looks like these may no longer be produced and their numbers are small to begin with, how collectible and valuable do you think USFA will be in the future?  Prices are already rising as supply has dried up and to compare them to the Great Westerns of the 1950s and 1960s as far as value does seem to mirror the eventual collector market.  For my money I would rather have a used USFA over Colt 3rd gens anyday.

O.K. I'll bite. Surprised nobody else has commented.

Well, at this point if USFA is truly going under as far as their SAA is concerned, then I think these guns will be very valuable. Like anything, at first the asking prices and their actual worth will be greatly exaggerated, but will eventually stabilize and level out. I wouldn't run out and buy one right away or at first glance. Given time the asking prices will become more reasonable. In the distant future... say 25 years from now the value will have considerably increased but they will not be worth a fortune or anything. In 100 years they may be near priceless.

But my opinion on this; is that this is all a ruse. A clever marketing technique to garner publicity ( no such thing as negative publicity in certain circumstances ), and to raise the market value of these firearms in the short term and thereby solidifying future sales, and lastly to create a "mystique and lore" around these guns. In other words to create a "new" legend.

When the product is reintroduced, the asking prices will have risen significantly because of the clamor to aquire them. People will say, "Let's hurry up and get one before they really go out of business." Classic supply and demand theory of capitalism.

Does anyone really think this owner / entrepreneur would risk everything - his reputation, product, and profits all to just come out with a silly young man's toy? Hardly. He is not stupid. In fact...

Ingenious.

[Doc Sunrise]

That would be clever, but highly unlikely. 

To reassemble the team of craftspeople and machinery again would be so costly the new prices for SAA's would have to be high, or subsidized like the Rodeos as a loss leader.  On top of which the customer base is shrinking.  There was room for an intermediate between the Italian Clones and Colt, as long as it was American made.  But when truly American made and unsubsidized to stand on its own, prices needed to be higher, and practically as high as Colt.  At those prices the loyalty to Colt became even more obvious, and USFA had priced itself right out of the intermediate market shared with Ruger.  Apparently it is easier to accept a non-true copy of Colt SAA that is American Made and with good pricing, two very key and important things for the aging customer base.  Unfortunately USFA is not using marketing strategies that make sense, like Ruger.  Strengthening a Brand does not include going on life support and eliminating what customer base you have just in hopes of building a better price.  Self-made delays in production do not create higher prices, just ticked off customers.  USFA will never be able to compete head on with Colt or Ruger, and no tricks will ever change that.  USFA will never be able to compete with Ruger, Ruger's Brand strength is solid, and they continue to deliver on price and being American made.

On the discussion of Collectibility, USFA standard models are sought after but at discount prices.  Fancy models are not moving well, but rare models that ceased production a while ago have seen some interesting prices.  Overall collectibility is questionable.  I believe if a USFA and a Colt are selling at the same price, The Colt is getting sold.  With that belief, USFA's prices will always be held below Colt's prices.

The USFA as we knew it, is gone!

[Gen. Jackson]

That would be clever, but highly unlikely. [... ]
 
The USFA as we knew it, is gone!

Much of what you said is valid and logical, but why does the website continue to exist concerning the SAA? Why does it continue to state that USFA is "re-tooling with all new machinery," etc...

Why not just say upfront, "Hey, thanks for the memories but the show is over. Elvis has left the building."

Why lead people with the proverbial dangling carrot ?

Granted its all weirdness to say the least. But something doesn't smell right in Denmark. As far as re-acquiring qualified machinists and gunmakers; I don't see that as a problem in this economy when many people are looking for work, even if it means getting paid less than what their skills are actually worth. They can even be acquired "piece meal" much like Doug Turnbull or take a percentage of the profits.

If indeed you are correct and it is truly over, then this has got to be one of the worst business decisions that I have heard of in regards to firearms or business in general ( well this and Marlin selling out to Remington ).

[sack peterson]

...but why does the website continue to exist concerning the SAA? Why does it continue to state that USFA is "re-tooling with all new machinery," etc...

Why not just say upfront, "Hey, thanks for the memories but the show is over. Elvis has left the building."

Why lead people with the proverbial dangling carrot ?

Granted its all weirdness to say the least. But something doesn't smell right in Denmark. As far as re-acquiring qualified machinists and gunmakers; I don't see that as a problem in this economy when many people are looking for work, even if it means getting paid less than what their skills are actually worth.

USFA's Single Action is an asset, much of it constituted as intellectual property.  They need to exercise some public maintenance of it, they just can't allow the brand to disappear.  Who knows, some other company may buy it...so it needs to appear as if there is something there.  The SA also represents the bulk of their work over the last 20 years, and is the linchpin of the credibility they have if they are to make this transition to the Zip.

I think the USFA guns will mostly do as they have, track a little higher than their last retail price + inflation.  There are not really any additional fellas pursuiting them.

[Billy Bristol]

If they are retooling they will also need more people. There were only 5 people working there when I went to their place a couple weeks ago. And they lost one of their best gunsmiths to another company.

[Gen. Jackson]

If they are retooling they will also need more people. There were only 5 people working there when I went to their place a couple weeks ago. And they lost one of their best gunsmiths to another company.

Yes, they may have indeed lost one of their best gunsmiths. I hate to put it this way, but gunsmiths are replaceable - just as surely as drywall hangers, journeyman electricians and painters are. There are literally thousands of them. Lots of them hungry for work.

Another interesting question would be: If no more SAA are going to be made, how are the 5 employess getting paid with no production?

I did read your previous posts and was rather intrigued with your sleuthing. If you ever swing by again keep us posted.

If nothing else, this has turned out to be an interesting saga. Kind of like Gone With the Wind minus Rhett Butler. But many of you I'm sure are thinking, "Frankly my dear I don't give a damn."

[Billy Bristol]

What I got from them was they are working on a 2yr backlog.
I will be going by again in the near future. It is only 20 minutes from me so not a long trip just to check things out.

[St. George]

Without those Italian parts and raw forgings, the sold-off CNC tooling and separated production staff, I bet that backlog's gonna stretch itself out.

Scouts Out!

[Doc Sunrise]

The website could be merely in existence to satisfy the lifetime warranty claim, and any other legal liabilities.

Mr. Donnely has the financial means to keep 5 employees there, but they may not be doing SAA work.

A 2 year backlog does not mean much when it is based at current production numbers, which appears to be next to nothing!

I totally disagree that craftspeople building SAA's can be picked up at anytime.  I bought SAA's from USFA for many years and saw the growth and maturity of their skills develop.  It took years to assemble the team they had along with the machinery updates to reach the skill and delopment level they were at.  USFA's first 2 decades of fine tuning while Colt was asleep at the quality wheel put Colt back on its heels enough they had to clean up their act and address quality issues, especially in tolerances connected to accuracy.  In the meantime Ruger certainly pushed harder into the marketing base with their new additions.  For USFA to attempt to re-enter into this market place with a shrinking customer base, and all levels being filled and well satisfied by very old and very well developed companies, namely Italians, Ruger, and Colt, would be suicide.  USFA had enough trouble keeping quality people when labor was easier to maintain at less expensive levels, and a loyal customer base existed.  With Skilled labor increasing in costs, along with the questionable duration of the company, and to re-set up machinery, let alone to buy it again in today's prices is more than enough to be considered a restrictive entrance into the market place.  A small company finds its core drive from its top person/people.  Mr. Donnely is obviously concentrating elsewhere.

All signs point to one thing, USFA SAA's and USFA Zip can not exist simultaneously.  USFA SAA's are done!  I could be very wrong, and would love to be, but even Freud stated "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."   

[Billy Bristol]

Doc,

I was in the manufacturing business for over 40 yrs. and I have to agree with you. I have seen businesses grow and I have seen them die out. I myself do not see USFA rebounding. There are many factors to consider. You have addressed most of them. It is not an easy task for a business to come back from a 2 yr backlog when they do not have the experienced people or tooling.
I do know what it takes to make new tooling, as I was a toolmaker and machine designer for most of those 40yrs.
To find good quality help these days is no easy task. I have not seen many talented people in the manufacturing field. And for a company to loose their best man is not a good thing. The learning curve for new help can be devastating to a company.

Billy

[Coffinmaker]

Well  ......... I suppose there are those who will turn USFA into "collectors" items.  Lets remember, while well made and well fitted, they are after all, high end Uberties.  Lets not get too excited.  Those who are pricing NIB USFA guns way above what was retail are nuts.  Those who are paying those prices should just send the check to me.  That way at least one of us will be happy.

Coffinmaker

[RickB]

Heck if these USFA guns become collectors items because they no longer make them,  then maybe my ASM schofield will become one too. 

[Gen. Jackson]

Those who are pricing NIB USFA guns way above what was retail are nuts.  

Exactly. Fantastic guns, but really, waaay overpriced at this point. People that pay retail I guess are desperate to get their hands on one, but then to pay over retail  is even more desperate.

Without going into detail, I can get almost any Western type gun at dealer cost. That's of course at slightly below wholesale. Just gotta know some gun dealers who also share in your pasttime  

[Coffinmaker]

Rick,

Should happen in about 150 years.  Just hang in there

Coffinmaker

[RickB]

LOL. I should live so long. 

I don't think I would sell it even if it were to go up in value. It's a really good shooter and I just like the heck out of it.

[Virginia Gentleman]

Newer ones were all USA made so I don't think the market will treat them as high end Ubertis. Even the older ones that had lots of Uberti parts still are more valuable than their Italian assembled and finished counterparts.  Too bad they bit the dust, I was hoping to buy more of their guns in the future, especially the .455 Colt/Eley version with the conversion cylinders.

[Deadeye Don]

O.K. I'll bite. Surprised nobody else has commented.

Well, at this point if USFA is truly going under as far as their SAA is concerned, then I think these guns will be very valuable. Like anything, at first the asking prices and their actual worth will be greatly exaggerated, but will eventually stabilize and level out. I wouldn't run out and buy one right away or at first glance. Given time the asking prices will become more reasonable. In the distant future... say 25 years from now the value will have considerably increased but they will not be worth a fortune or anything. In 100 years they may be near priceless.

But my opinion on this; is that this is all a ruse. A clever marketing technique to garner publicity ( no such thing as negative publicity in certain circumstances ), and to raise the market value of these firearms in the short term and thereby solidifying future sales, and lastly to create a "mystique and lore" around these guns. In other words to create a "new" legend.

When the product is reintroduced, the asking prices will have risen significantly because of the clamor to aquire them. People will say, "Let's hurry up and get one before they really go out of business." Classic supply and demand theory of capitalism.

Does anyone really think this owner / entrepreneur would risk everything - his reputation, product, and profits all to just come out with a silly young man's toy? Hardly. He is not stupid. In fact...

Ingenious.

To answer your last question.  YES I think this guy is that stupid.  His past actions have proved that.

[Virginia Gentleman]

If I won the lottery I would buy the company and trademarks and relocate the company to Richmond, Virginia and tool back up to production give the SAA a Southern flair. 

[St. George]

You'd still be dependent upon Beretta/Uberti for the raw forgings and unfinished parts, and once Beretta bought Uberti, they quit quietly supplying USFA.

Scouts Out!