Someone explain to me whats going on in the shooting world right now.

[Whiskey Banjo]

So im a little confused about whats going on right now. Obviously the demand of shooting products has gone up tremendously because of recent events. But what i dont understand is how can the supply be so drained that the entire industry is at a stand still? How is every retailer out of everything? Why is every gun store empty? Has production stopped? I dont think it has, so it seems that companies would up production for the demand. If they are so overwhelmed with business maybe its time to expand their business. I just dont understand that if firearm companies are still producing products, where the hell are they going to? Its hard for me to swallow that the demand is THAT high that any gun store in california wont even order me a gun because the manufacturers are to overwhelmed.  Is it really that bad? And if it is ,why arent they upping production to match the demand? Seems like no one makes any money with empty shelves.

Im no economist, this is why im asking because it just doesnt make sense to me. It honestly feels like something else is going on besides just high demand.

So enlighten me please. Have any old timers seen this before in the past?

[harleydavis]

Now, I aint no genius, nor do I claim to have any massive insight into this issue. I agree with you and on the face of it, seems silly really. IMHO, we (meaning firearms enthusiasts) are largely creating this "shortage" ourselves. I can only speak to my personal reaction to recent events. The mad rush of the "progressives" to pass any laws they can, has made me nervous. I look at a season of CAS and think "oh my, I only have XXXX primers and XXlbs of Unique, whatever shall I do?". So, I pay the $45/1000 large pistol primers and $120/8lb of Unique and think that I have done so well. Times how many million gun owners and voila, here we are. Add into the mix the people that "need" XXXXX rounds of .223 & XXXXX rounds of 9mm, the incorrectly reported DHS/FEMA orders (I heard today the number was 3 BILLION, come on people, seriously?) and how many overseas wars we are currently fighting and we have a sellers market.

I dont think it is a conspiricy of manufacturers holding back production, why would they? Businesses want to make and sell all the product they can. I do believe there is an extremely high demand at the moment driven by many factors. Many firearms are currently produced overseas and the shipping and importation process is so slow that this may be a part of the issue in the reproduction of historical firearms world, probably true to some extent in modern semi-auto production as well. So here I go again. Here is my recent example: I wanted to get a Cimarron Winchester '76 someday. Well, even though I really cant afford it, I better buy this one now since (1) price will only go up (2) this one is for sale and how soon will another be available (3) by this time next year, these will probably be outlawed and by god, I want one!!!!

Sadly, I fear many of these driving forces (the limiting of our 2nd Amendment rights being foremost) may be more accurate than any of us truly know. I'd like to think that I am a logically thinking American and I see so many others just like me with the same opinion of our current political climate. I really dont want to believe it could be possible in my lifetime, but what if? I have to confess then, that I have been a small part of the silliness right along with the rest of you fellers!!!!

[Whiskey Banjo]

I completely agree with you.. i guess a better question would be : Since demand is obviously only going to get higher, why arent firearm companies expanding and producing more to match the demand? Seems like it would only be a smart business move.. but instead they just stop taking orders, turn down customers, and make prices sky rocket.

[harleydavis]

One needs to understand the manufacturing process a bit. I have been in the business of selling Harley Davidson motorcyles since 1984. In those early years, production was around 30,000 units a year. When it became fashionable to own an HD in 1990, the demand went through the roof. Production increased to around 100,000 units a year by the early 1990's but customers were put on waiting lists. By the late 1990's these lists were 3-4years out in some cases. A factory can only build so much product in its current facility, this is true for any product, motorcycle or guns. Demand was so high that in some markets, dealers were charging $5000-$10,000 over MSRP and customers paid it. HD could not envision this demand and it takes many years to build new facilities and get them online. By the early 2000's, the new plants came on line and by 2005 & 2006, production approached 400,000 units. In 2007, the economy went to crap, demand fell, customers lost jobs and sold their toys, HD production dropped to 175,000 per year. New prices went to h**l and used product is cheap, the company lost millions. The new market is still struggling to recover.

This will happen in the firearms world more than likely. The difference is that that the "powers that be" will make it so difficult to legally aquire firearms that the preowned market will probably just get worse. I am not defending any manufactures, but look at it from their point of view. They could not expand production in time before the political climate totally ruins their business. How can a company justify the millions of dollars and several years of building to meet a demand that may, in fact, be a last gasp for some of these business? If you were the CEO of one of these business, would you? Again, I am not defending nor am I happy with the curent situation either.

Still, it urks the heck out of me to see a local shop have a tag of $1789 on a repro Spencer. Could buy an original for not a lot more. Here is what is stupid, I looked at it and caught myself starting the justification process. Like I said, we are part of the problem. Then again, I may be totally wrong and it is a grand conspriracy after all!!!

[Whiskey Banjo]

Very insightful... makes me understand why companies are weary to expand production.  The harley comparison was a great one..

I just hope this phase is over soon.. but this really is only the beginning i fear. Its frustrating trying to purchase something and a company/gun shop isnt even willing to put you on a waiting list. Its just "nope, ur outta luck"

[joec]

My prediction is it will last a couple more months however be prepared to see prices climb about 10 - 20% on everything gun related. This followed the same pattern we had the first time Obama got elected and this time as well. Thank the NRA, Government for it all period. Don't by the line the DHS security caused it or anything else it is caused by the fear the NRA drummed up with the help of the Government due to several mass killings. People buy up what ever they need in bulk due to fear. I saw it coming before the election and stock up over the several months leading up to it. Hence I have what I need for at least another 2 years.

[harleydavis]

Joec: You are exactly right, it is a fear mongering that we all buy into at some level. The liberals promote it for their efforts to grab your rights, the ultra conservatives push for the bucks involved in NRA bureaucracy. In the meantime the average shooter/hunter pays the financial price. The actual DHS order was around 400,000 if I recall the numbers correctly, a far cry from the 375,000,000 or the latest 3 Billion number. Slow up folks,  I fear this may not subside for some time.

[Mean Bob Mean]

There are clearly speculators driving some of these market blips on auction sites.  Hoarding by paranoid gun owners is driving most of it.  Guys need to verify rumors and fear mogering before they pass it around at sites like these.  What we need is for everyone to stop buying any ammo or reloading material for a solid month.  That will bring a correction.

We need an organized boycott of these prices.  

In my opinion only.

[Bugscuffle]

There are clearly speculators driving some of these market blips on auction sites.  Hoarding by paranoid gun owners is driving most of it.  Guys need to verify rumors and fear mogering before they pass it around at sites like these.  What we need is for everyone to stop buying any ammo or reloading material for a solid month.  That will bring a correction.

We need an organized boycott of these prices. 

In my opinion only.

A boycott just won't work unless it is a massive one. What will a massive boycott accomplish other than to make the anti-gun people happy? Not much I suspect. I postulated about this a while back and got a response from someone, I don't remember who, that though that it wasn't hoarders causing the higher prices, but rather "flippers" that buy up all that they can and then parcel them out at outrageous prices. He is probably right. There was a poster on another forum that was bragging that he found primers for $20/ 1000 and bought all of them, 10,000. All that I could think of was how greedy that person was and how many others would not be able to reload because of his greed. The only way to win this game is to not play.

[Mean Bob Mean]

A boycott just won't work unless it is a massive one.

Agreed, hence the point "organized" boycott; but I doubt a one month boycott of pricey ammo would register on any anti gun noggin. The point being to drive prices down I doubt it will make them happy.

Cheers

[Mustang Gregg]

In February here was a guy in my shop wanting to buy some ammunition of almost every caliber.
I asked what all guns he had and he said, "None, really.  I just want to have ammo to speculate on."

I reckon this is a fair share of the current supply problem.

Mustang Gregg
Wild West Arms

[Chev. William]

Perhaps another point of view:
as of 2010, according to the Census Bureau Statistics report, there were 308,745,538 person of all ages in the United States of America.  Around the end of 2012 I believe the NRA reported its membership as somewhere around 2 or 3 million adults.  I believe that now in mid 2013 that is over 4 million adult members, and this is only one of several groups that lists Gun owners as members.
Due to the hue and cry by 'Gun Control' Groups to restrict or ban Gun Ownership following 2012 many persons who previously did not own one have purchased, and continue to purchase, firearms of any and all types, plus the Ammunition, components, and tools to reload the ammunition to 'Get some Before it is banned'.  If a customer base of say 20 million suddenly expands to something like, say, 100 million within two or three months, there is no way manufacturing could keep up with the sudden demand.
As to manufacturers expanding to meet the demand, that is not good economic sens for long term corporate survival, just look at what happened to the Aerospace industry after Congress took the 'Peace Dividend' after the Cold War Ended.  I was one of many that lost jobs in the following 'contraction and consolidations'.  Whole regions were deeply impacted by the 'shake out' of excess capacity.
I think the manufacturers and suppliers for our 'hobby' are taking a Cautious Stand and trying to insure they will still be able to remain in business after this crush of new buyers is satisfied, then will adjust capabilities to match the sustained needs fo our hobby IF Our Government and its Regulatory Agencies Allow them to.

Just my opinion.
Best Regards,
Chev. William